Bitcoin Price Prediction – Will BTC Hit $150K by End of 2025? A Beginner’s Guide & Forecast

Written by C, Fiona
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Last updated: 12/02/2025 16:38
 As of early December 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades around US$ 86,500–87,000. Recent volatility — driven by massive outflows from spot-BTC ETFs and broader risk-off sentiment — has shaken the market; nonetheless, a combination of reduced new supply (after the 2024 halving), potential macro tailwinds, and renewed institutional demand leaves room for three realistic “end-of-2025” price scenarios:

Scenario Probability Primary Catalysts to Watch Critical Risk Factors
Bear (~$60k) 25% Sustained ETF outflows, recession signals, hawkish central bank policy, regulatory crackdowns. Failure to hold ~$50k support, prolonged negative investor sentiment.
Base (~$90k-$110k) 50% Stabilizing inflation/rates, consistent ETF flows, growth in Layer-2 adoption and real-world utility. Stagnant institutional adoption, slower-than-expected regulatory progress.
Bull (~$120k-$150k+) 25% Aggressive rate cuts, spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in major new markets (e.g., China), multiple Fortune 500 treasury allocations. Overheating market leading to sharp corrections, regulatory pushback against rapid growth.
This article explains why those ranges make sense, what could change them, and how you (a beginner investor) can use them — through BTCC — to plan your BTC strategy.
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Why “End-of-2025” Matters — And What’s Changed in 2024–2025

Market background: high volatility & ETF outflows

•In November 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly saw a record outflow of US$ 3.5 billion – 3.7 billion, marking the worst month since their 2024 launch.

•On December 1, 2025, BTC dropped about 5–7%, trading near US$ 84,500–86,500 — the sharpest one-day fall in weeks, reflecting broad risk-off in equities and crypto.

•According to a recent report, these outflows have triggered liquidation cascades, amplifying downside pressure.
This turbulence marks a shift from the bullish summer/autumn 2025 when BTC reached new all-time highs above US$ 126,000.

Supply dynamics: 2024 halving keeps supply growth slow

•The most recent halving (April 2024) cut block rewards in half — new daily issuance of BTC roughly dropped by ~50%.

•As of 2025, Bitcoin’s circulating supply is about 20 million BTC of the maximum 21 million, meaning very few new coins enter the market, reinforcing scarcity.

•Academic analysis suggests the 2024 halving had a positive effect on BTC price in subsequent months relative to a synthetic control (a model of what BTC might have done without halving).
Lower supply growth — when combined with stable or increasing demand — remains a fundamental long-term bullish foundation for BTC.

Building the 2025 End-of-Year Scenarios (Bear / Base / Bull)

Here’s a simple, repeatable framework — even beginners can understand — for why each scenario is plausible:

1.Anchor at Current Price

Using the latest data (Dec 1, 2025), BTC ≈ US$ 86,500–87,000.

2.Bear Case (~US$ 60K)

•Trigger: Continued ETF outflows, worsening macro environment, risk-off sentiment, weak institutional demand.

•Rationale: If ETFs and corporate treasuries keep selling or remain net negative, liquidity dries up. Combined with broader market stress, BTC could retrace significantly.

3.Base Case (~US$ 90–110K)

•Trigger: Macro stabilization (e.g., dovish rate moves), ETF flows turn neutral/slightly positive, more “buy-the-dip” from medium-term holders.

•Rationale: With halving-driven scarcity, even modest demand can push price higher; many analysts view this range as conservative yet realistic.

4.Bull Case (~US$ 120–150K+)

•Trigger: Renewed institutional buying, corporate treasury Bitcoin accumulation, macro tailwinds (rate cuts, improved liquidity), renewed retail interest.

•Rationale: If demand spikes and supply remains constrained, price could overshoot. Especially given that some historical cycles post-halving saw 4–8× gains (though with diminishing multipliers).

These scenarios assume no extreme black swan events (e.g., severe regulation crackdown, global financial crisis). They also treat halving effects, ETF flows, and macro as main price drivers.

What Could Change the Outcome — Key Risk & Catalysts

Bullish catalysts

•Institutional / corporate demand rebounds — renewed inflows into spot-BTC ETFs or treasury purchases by firms (e.g. corporate treasuries buying BTC).

•Macro tailwinds — central banks pivoting to rate cuts, improving global liquidity, revival of risk-on sentiment, weakening USD.

•Supply-side constraints — halving reduces new issuance; many long-term holders (“HODLers”) keep BTC off-exchange, shrinking circulating supply.

️ Bearish risks

•Continued ETF outflows / institutional sell-offs, reducing liquidity and demand.

•Macro stress — recession risk, rising interest rates, strong USD, risk-off sentiment hitting high-beta assets like crypto.

•Regulatory uncertainty — negative crypto regulations or crackdowns could scare institutional and retail investors.

•On-chain or security risks — though unlikely, any major network event, hack, or 51%-attack speculation could damage confidence.

How Beginners Can Use These Scenarios — Practical Tips & BTCC Strategy

If you’re new to crypto, treating BTC price forecasts as a map, not a promise helps you stay grounded. Here’s a simple playbook:

Long-term holder (“HODLer”) — if you believe in BTC’s long-term value

•Use dollar-cost averaging (DCA): deposit fiat/stablecoins regularly (e.g., monthly) on BTCC and buy BTC spot. That avoids trying to time the top/bottom.

•Hold regardless of short-term volatility — treat dips (e.g. Bear scenario) as potential bargain opportunities.

Tactical investor — moderate risk appetite

•Accumulate some BTC now; set alerts for dips (e.g. $70–80K) to add more.

•Consider small portion of portfolio for derivatives/futures on BTCC — but only with strict risk management (stop-losses, limited leverage).

Balanced approach — mix of long-term + tactical

•Allocate 60–70% for long-term hold, 20–30% for DCA, 5–10% for tactical trades (e.g., hedging or short-term buys) depending on risk tolerance.

If you don’t yet have a BTCC account, register now and explore our educational resources — it’s free and beginner-friendly.

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FAQs (Beginner-Focused)

Q1: Is $150K by December 2025 realistic or just hype?

A1: It’s a bull-case scenario, not guaranteed. It assumes favorable macro conditions, renewed institutional demand, and no major negative shocks. The more conservative base case of $90–110K is statistically more probable, given recent volatility and ETF outflows.

Q2: Why does halving matter? Didn’t last cycles crash anyway?

A2: Halving reduces new supply — making BTC scarcer over time. The latest (2024) halving means fewer new BTC entering the market. Academic research supports a positive effect on price in months following a halving (when demand stays stable or grows).    But halving alone doesn’t guarantee price increases — demand matters.

Q3: Should I buy now or wait for a dip?

A3: If you’re long-term focused, starting a small DCA now is reasonable — waiting for dips may miss upside. If you prefer lower risk, dollar-cost average instead of lump-sum buying, and avoid trying to perfectly time market bottoms.

Q4: What macro events should I watch to know which scenario might play out?

A4: Key triggers include central bank interest rate decisions, major ETF inflows/outflows data, global economic risk events (recession, geopolitical crisis), and regulatory developments affecting crypto or ETFs. Also watch BTC supply metrics and on-chain data (e.g. how much BTC moves off exchange).

Conclusion

Predicting BTC’s price by end of 2025 is far from precise — but by combining supply-side dynamics (post-halving scarcity), current macro & ETF flow data, and realistic demand assumptions, we can outline plausible scenarios:

•A bearish drawdown to ~US$ 60,000 in a risk-off world.

•A moderate rebound to ~US$ 90–110K under stable macro + neutral/positive demand.

•A bullish run to ~US$ 120–150K+ if institutional and macro tailwinds align.
As a beginner, using a disciplined strategy (DCA, diversification, risk management) — rather than trying to time market tops or bottoms — is likely your best path. If you want to act on these insights, BTCC offers spot trading, margin/futures, and educational resources to help you start.

Sources

For more detailed market analysis, strategies, and educational resources, visit BTCC Academy and stay ahead of the curve in the rapidly evolving crypto space.

How to Trade Crypto on BTCC?

This brief instruction will assist you in registering for and trading on the BTCC exchange.

Step 1: Register an account

The first step is to hit the “Sign Up” button on the BTCC website or app. Your email address and a strong password are all you need. After completing that, look for a verification email in your inbox. To activate your account, click the link in the email.

 

Create an Account

 

Step 2: Finish the KYC

The Know Your Customer (KYC) procedure is the next step after your account is operational. The main goal of this stage is to maintain compliance and security. You must upload identification, such as a passport or driver’s license. You’ll receive a confirmation email as soon as your documents are validated, so don’t worry—it’s a quick process.

 

Complete KYC

 

 

Step 3. Deposit Funds

After that, adding money to your account is simple. BTCC provides a range of payment options, such as credit cards and bank transfers. To get your money into your trading account, simply choose what works best for you, enter the amount, and then follow the instructions.

  • Fiat Deposit. Buy USDT using Visa/Mastercard (KYC required).
  • Crypto Deposit. Transfer crypto from another platform or wallet.

 

Deposit Funds

 

Step 4. Start Trading

If you wish to follow profitable traders, you might go for copy trading, futures, or spot trading. After choosing your order type and the cryptocurrency you wish to trade, press the buy or sell button. Managing your portfolio and keeping track of your trades is made simple by the user-friendly interface.

 

Start Trading

 

Look more for details: How to Trade Crypto Futures Contracts on BTCC

 

BTCC FAQs

Is BTCC safe?

Based on its track record since 2011, BTCC has established itself as a secure cryptocurrency exchange. There have been no reports of fraudulent activity involving user accounts or the platform’s infrastructure. By enforcing mandatory know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) procedures, the cryptocurrency trading platform gives consumers greater security. For operations like withdrawals, it also provides extra security features like two-factor authentication (2FA).

Is KYC Necessary for BTCC?

Indeed. Before using BTCC goods, users must finish the Know Your Customer (KYC) process. A facial recognition scan and legitimate identification documents must be submitted for this process. Usually, it is finished in a few minutes. This procedure has the benefit of strengthening the security of the exchange and satisfying legal requirements.

Because their accounts will have a lower daily withdrawal limit, those who do not finish their KYC are unable to make deposits. It should be noted that those who present a legitimate ID without a facial recognition scan will likewise have restricted withdrawal options.

Is There a Mobile App for BTCC?

Indeed. For users of iOS and Android, BTCC has a mobile app. The exchange’s website offers the mobile app for download. Since both the web version and the mobile app have the same features and capabilities, they are comparable.

Will I Have to Pay BTCC Trading Fees?

Indeed. BTCC levies a fee for trade, just like a lot of other centralised exchanges. Each user’s VIP level, which is unlocked according to their available money, determines the different costs. The BTCC website provides information on the charge rates.

Can I Access BTCC From the U.S?

You can, indeed. According to its website, BTCC has obtained a crypto license from the US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), which enables the cryptocurrency exchange to provide its services to investors who are headquartered in the US.

According to BTCC’s User Agreement document, its goods are not allowed to be used in nations and organisations that have been sanctioned by the United States or other nations where it has a licence.

 

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