BTC Surges 20% in Two Days to Break $76K, Is the Bull Market Back?

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On August 21, global markets diverged. Rising oil prices and elevated U.S. Treasury yields weighed on U.S. stocks, while a weaker dollar supported gold and crypto assets. BTC extended its powerful two-day rally and broke above $76,000. Renewed ETF inflows, improving U.S. regulatory expectations, and short covering combined to rapidly lift sentiment across the crypto market.

U.S. Stocks Retreat Under Pressure From Treasury Yields and Oil

U.S. stocks posted their biggest decline in three weeks on Thursday. The Dow fell 1.32%, the S&P 500 lost 0.87%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.00%, while previously strong AI and semiconductor stocks also pulled back. Elevated Treasury yields, rising oil prices, and a weaker consumer outlook weighed on risk appetite.

The U.S. Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of liquidity-support buybacks for 10- to 30-year Treasuries between September 9 and November 4, though the initial boost to the bond market proved short-lived. With U.S. government debt now above $40 trillion, concerns over long-term financing pressure remain. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.70%, while the 30-year yield stands near 5.25%.

Energy prices are adding further pressure. Brent crude is trading around $91.4, while WTI has risen to roughly $86. Persistently high oil prices could revive inflation concerns and limit the Federal Reserve’s room to shift policy.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen to around 98.31. Gold futures have climbed to roughly $4,550, while silver has broken above $68, bringing the “fiscal pressure, weaker dollar, and hard-asset allocation” theme back into focus.

BTC Breaks $76K as Capital and Policy Catalysts Align

Crypto has emerged as one of the strongest areas of the current market. According to BTCC market data, BTC is trading at $76,602, up 9.92% on the day and more than 18% over two consecutive sessions. Its market capitalization has recovered to around $1.5 trillion, lifting Bitcoin to No. 13 among global assets by market value.

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Three key factors are driving the rally. First, the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of long-term bond buybacks has improved liquidity expectations. Second, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract net inflows, signaling a clear return of institutional demand. Third, improving U.S. crypto regulatory expectations have prompted markets to reprice potential policy tailwinds.

Capital flows have provided crucial support. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded four consecutive days of net inflows, with approximately $606 million flowing in yesterday after roughly $517 million the previous day. Once BTC broke through key resistance levels, large-scale short covering further accelerated the rally.

Policy signals also remain supportive. Trump has renewed his push for market-structure legislation including the CLARITY Act, while the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee has held its first meeting. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said that even if the CLARITY Act fails to pass, the agency could still advance a crypto market structure framework through rulemaking or other measures.

Back Above the 200-Day MA as Markets Price In a Bull-Market Return

Bitcoin’s technical structure has also improved significantly. BTC has reclaimed its 200-day moving average near $69,000, strengthening signs of a medium-term trend recovery. After breaking through the $64,000 area, BTC accelerated on rising volume and quickly cleared both $70,000 and $75,000, leaving bulls firmly in control in the short term.

As prices break higher, several market participants have turned increasingly bullish. Killa, a trader who previously accurately mapped Bitcoin’s bear-market decline, said BTC has already rebounded from its lows and that waiting for the “perfect bottom” could mean missing the next leg higher. His long-term target remains above $150,000, and he believes Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle could eventually change.

Trader Doctor Profit believes BTC has broken through several key resistance zones and that the bear market may already be over, with the market entering the early stages of a new bull cycle. On-chain analyst Ali Charts sees relatively limited resistance above current levels, with $83,300 potentially becoming the next major hurdle.

In the short term, 72,000–73,000 has become a key support zone, followed by the breakout area around 69,000–70,000. If BTC holds above $72,000, the next levels to watch are around $78,000 and $83,000. A rapid drop back below $70,000, however, could trigger profit-taking after the sharp two-day rally.

ETH Gains 26% in a Week as Capital Spreads to Major Altcoins

Following Bitcoin’s breakout, capital has begun rotating into higher-beta crypto assets. According to BTCC market data, ETH is trading at $2,375, up 6.06% over the past 24 hours and approximately 26% over the past week. After spending an extended period consolidating around $1,900, ETH broke higher on stronger volume and is now approaching the $2,400 level.

Technically, 2,300–2,350 has become the key short-term support zone. If ETH continues to hold above this range, it could test 2,400–2,500. If the rally loses momentum, support around $2,250 will be the next area to watch.

Among major altcoins, XRP has stood out with gains of more than 15% on the day, supported by the broader market rally, Ripple’s cross-border payment partnerships, and improving U.S. regulatory expectations. HYPE has also benefited from growing expectations around U.S. regulatory compliance, at one point surging to around $74.

What to Watch Next

The next major macro catalyst will be the U.S. Treasury’s expanded bond buyback program beginning September 9. Previous increases in buyback activity helped push long-term Treasury yields and the dollar lower while providing liquidity support for risk assets such as BTC. Whether that effect continues will remain an important focus for markets.

BTC has now broken out of a key trading range and reclaimed its 200-day moving average, signaling a stronger trend. However, confirmation that the “bull market is back” will require further evidence. In the near term, the key signals to watch are whether $75,000 can turn into effective support and whether spot Bitcoin ETFs can sustain their net inflows.

Risk Warning: Some of the views in this article are drawn from public media sources and are for reference only. They do not constitute any investment advice or trading recommendation. Markets involve risks, and trading should be approached with caution. Please ensure you have appropriate risk controls in place.

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