Israel has confirmed that the risk of military confrontation has decreased, but it is not optimistic about an economic war. Will Iran take advantage of this opportunity to strike?

Trump has paused escalating military action and shifted pressure towards the economic sphere, but this does not mean the crisis is over. Some analysts warn that Iran may create an "October surprise" before the US midterm elections.

According to the Jerusalem Post, Israeli security sources said that the likelihood of an escalation of military confrontation with Iran in the near future has decreased after a series of talks and discussions with senior US officials. Officials revealed that Trump's decision to implement another round of severe economic sanctions is aimed at "buying time" for the situation after the US midterm elections.

It remains unclear whether the United States can successfully deter and exert strong pressure on countries that directly or indirectly support the Iranian regime through oil trade, bank accounts, fund transfers, raw material supplies, and other channels.

However, the aforementioned security official stated that without extreme measures and strong enforcement by the United States, Trump will be unable to achieve his intended goals.

Washington Post reporter Marc Thiessen's assessment is even more pessimistic: the temporary de-escalation of the military conflict does not mean the risk has disappeared; on the contrary, it may leave new uncertainties for Iran to take action before the US midterm elections.

He pointed out that Trump had previously come close to expanding military operations on several occasions, but ultimately did not fully resume large-scale combat. If Iran interprets this as the US being unwilling to bear the costs of new war before the election, it may believe it has greater room for maneuver.

Trump downplayed Iran's attack on the UAE this week, calling Iran's occasional drone strikes merely "harassment." But in Thyssen's view, the real question is: Does Iran still possess more destructive leverage?

Thyssen specifically warned of a so-called "October surprise"—that Iran might suddenly escalate its actions before the U.S. midterm elections, forcing Trump to reconsider the option of war .

"October surprise" is an American political term that refers to a sudden event that occurs a month before the November election and could potentially influence the outcome of the election.

Energy facilities and the Hormuz remain key risk areas.

Thyssen believes that Iran may still use its remaining military capabilities to put pressure on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, U.S. military personnel, or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz .

A major reason why Trump has been hesitant to resume large-scale military operations is his fear of retaliatory Iranian attacks on energy facilities in Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar. If a significant amount of oil supply were forced to withdraw from the international market, oil prices could surge, further impacting the global economy.

Thyssen cited a report from The Wall Street Journal stating that U.S. Gulf allies have provided intelligence to Washington indicating that the Iranian leadership is discussing ways to escalate the conflict and increase the costs for the United States.

Thyssen stated that Iran believes it has the upper hand in its contest of will with Trump. As retired General Jack Keane put it, Iran may believe that launching an attack before the midterm elections could alter US domestic politics and potentially impact future funding for the war.

However, Thyssen points out that this assessment itself is highly uncertain. Any major attack on U.S. personnel or Gulf energy facilities could force Trump to resume military action, quickly derailing the situation from the economic pressure track.

Israel is still preparing for the worst-case scenario.

Despite the reduced risk of short-term escalation, Israel has not relaxed its military preparations.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will continue to strengthen its intelligence, ammunition procurement, interceptor missile production, target database development, and air force defense and offensive capabilities in preparation for a renewed escalation of the conflict with Iran.

Israeli security officials are also concerned that if the government does not quickly expand the budget deficit framework and push through legislation, the military may not be able to procure the ammunition and advanced weapons systems needed for high-intensity warfare in a timely manner.

Iran has also sent a strong signal. A spokesman for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that if war breaks out again, Iran will use "more destructive" weapons, and said that the missile warheads in a new conflict will be completely different from those before.