US-Iran War Hits Six-Month Mark as War of Attrition: IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 3.0% for Second Time This Year

The US-Iran conflict has dragged on for six months and evolved into a war of attrition, disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and keeping oil prices elevated. The IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.0%, down from the 3.3% projected in January. The war has severely depleted US ammunition and combat readiness, and has driven Trump's approval rating down to 33%, putting pressure on the midterm elections.

Six months into the US-Iran war, the conflict has morphed from what Trump called a "small expedition" into a protracted war of attrition. It has not only failed to bring Iran to heel but continues to drag down global economic growth expectations.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its global growth forecast twice this year, with the latest projection at 3.0% for this year, a significant drop from the 3.3% forecast in January. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted, international oil prices remain high, inflationary pressures are intensifying, and global supply chains remain under strain.

The war is becoming a political liability for Trump. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, his approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the conflict began, and only 31% of Americans support the war—lower than the support level at the same stage of the Afghanistan war. Reuters reported that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told allies that Washington is "currently" unlikely to launch new military strikes, and is instead pivoting back to economic pressure.

Global economy hit, but better than initially feared

The Strait of Hormuz is about 34 kilometers wide at its narrowest point and carries about one-fifth of the world's energy supply. At the outset of the war, severe disruptions to this chokepoint sparked widespread fears of a global recession.

The IMF's two downward revisions show that the shock has materially fed through to growth figures. But the global economy has proven more resilient than during the 1970s oil crisis—major economies are significantly less dependent on energy, and strong consumer spending and investment demand, especially the ongoing investment boom in artificial intelligence, have offset some of the negative impact.

Iran's continued attacks on shipping, combined with Houthi blockades of Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea, have driven up insurance and transport costs across the region. The spillover effects of supply chain disruptions and uncertainty now extend far beyond the impact of any single attack.

War at a stalemate: Iran damaged but not defeated

Six months of military strikes have failed to break Iran's will to resist. Reuters reported that Admiral Brad Cooper of US Central Command testified to Congress in May that US forces had destroyed 161 Iranian naval vessels and disabled 82% of its air defense systems. The Iranian air force, which had been flying up to 100 sorties a day, has largely stopped flying.

However, Iran still retains a large number of drones and missiles and continues to attack shipping and US facilities in the region. Reuters reported in March, citing sources, that the US could only confirm the destruction of about one-third of Iran's massive missile stockpile, with the status of the rest unclear.

Trump's political costs mount, midterm pressure emerges

Rising oil prices directly undercut Trump's core 2024 campaign promise to lower the cost of living. Behind the slide to 33% approval is voters' tangible discontent over high prices. Only 31% of Americans support the war—a figure that is not only low compared with recent US military actions abroad but also lower than support levels at the same stage of the Afghanistan war.

In November's midterm elections, Republicans need to defend their slim majorities in both chambers of Congress. High prices and the ongoing war have become major political risks. At the same time, divisions within the Republican Party are deepening—between isolationist-leaning lawmakers who want to end the conflict quickly and hawks who support sustained military pressure on Tehran.

US military readiness degraded, cross-regional asset shifts raise concerns

The war is also draining US military strength. According to a May report by the Congressional Research Service, the US has lost 42 military aircraft in the conflict. The consumption of precision-guided munitions has been particularly severe—Reuters reported that global stockpiles of certain US precision missiles are nearly exhausted. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that as of July, the US had used about 65% of its Patriot interceptor missiles, and stockpiles of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors had fallen by at least 38%.

To support the Middle East fight, the US military has shifted fighter jets, ships, and other assets originally deployed in Europe and the Asia-Pacific to the Middle East, extending deployment cycles and raising questions about readiness in other regions. The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford's deployment lasted more than a year, the longest since the Vietnam War. After the USS Abraham Lincoln spent 200 consecutive days at sea, lawmakers expressed concern about conditions on board. Last week, a carrier previously operating in the Pacific was urgently dispatched to relieve it—a detail that clearly illustrates the war's ongoing strain on the US military's overall ability to allocate assets.