US Military Claims Hormuz Mines Cleared; Goldman Sachs Says Middle East Oil Exports Back to Two-Thirds

The United States continues to publicly announce that it has cleared Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz, but US allies and the intelligence community have expressed strong doubts. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs notes that Middle Eastern oil producers are adapting to shipping oil under conflict conditions……

On Thursday evening local time, US Central Command Commander Brad Cooper announced in a three-and-a-half-minute video that the US military has cleared the international shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. He revealed that over the past few months, Navy divers, SEAL teams, and aviation units meticulously completed the mine-clearing mission.

In the video, which featured detailed maps and charts, Cooper emphasized: "These conditions were challenging and dangerous, to say the least, but we accomplished the mission. The bottom line is that today the international shipping lanes are open, and momentum is building."

However, US allies have privately warned that this critical chokepoint for Middle Eastern oil, natural gas, and fertilizer may still be littered with mines. According to Bloomberg, anonymous sources familiar with internal assessments revealed that the US military has not completely cleared the approximately 80 to 150 mines previously laid by Iran.

In response to allies' concerns, US officials dismissed the mine figures as outdated. Since the outbreak of conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran in late February this year, the risk of mines and attacks on commercial vessels has caused shipping through the strait to decline sharply.

Senior US government officials are working hard to reinforce the narrative that the shipping lanes have been restored to safety. On Wednesday, US President Trump called the Strait of Hormuz a "very well-functioning strait" and reiterated that all mines have been cleared.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent posted that over the past 14 days, the US has guided oil safely through the strait. He is currently leading efforts to economically isolate Iran through a series of sanctions, declaring that "the blockade and 'Operation Economic Pariah' will crush Iran's faltering economy."

In response, Iran has consistently maintained throughout the conflict that it controls the Strait of Hormuz, and the status of the waterway has been a key point of contention in US-Iran negotiations. Earlier this week, the Iranian military announced a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman, located on the southern shore of the strait, regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

"Covert Sailing" Boosts Crude Exports; Refined Products and Natural Gas Remain Under Pressure

Amid the geopolitical maneuvering between the US and Iran, energy flows in the Persian Gulf are undergoing substantial changes. A Goldman Sachs report shows that the region's oil exports have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels, which has largely limited the impact of the US-Iran conflict on global crude prices.

Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, noted that thanks to increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, total exports of Persian Gulf crude and petroleum products have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels per day.

While this figure is 7 million to 8 million barrels per day lower than before the conflict, it is far above the trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day in March this year. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz alone could be close to the 8 million to 10 million barrels per day estimated by US officials.

Because tankers often turn off satellite transponders to avoid tracking, accurately assessing the volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz has become extremely difficult. Commodity traders told Bloomberg this week that currently about 6 million to 8 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait daily, an estimate that excludes some Saudi crude exported via the Red Sea.

These sustained crude exports have successfully kept global oil prices around $89 per barrel, down from highs above $120 per barrel in April this year. Goldman Sachs noted that the increase in "dark" sailing and ship-to-ship transfers by specialized shippers indicates that the shipping industry is adapting to the Middle East conflict.

The Goldman Sachs report further concluded that this increase in covert flows could moderate upside pressure on crude prices, even if disruptions in the Middle East persist longer.

Although large volumes of crude are flowing out of the Persian Gulf, flows of liquefied natural gas and refined products remain low. Goldman Sachs warned that in a sustained supply disruption scenario, European natural gas prices and forward petroleum product prices have greater upside potential than crude.