BTCC Daily (8.28) | U.S. PCE Disinflation Stalls, Bitcoin ETFs See Nine Straight Trading Days of Net Inflows

Top Highlights

• Bitcoin briefly rose to around $81,280 before pulling back toward $80,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for a ninth consecutive trading day.

• Fed Chair Warsh will deliver his first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium today, with markets focused on his stance on inflation and the rate-hike path.

• TRUMP rose more than 19%, while SOL gained about 5%. Charles Schwab announced that it will add SOL, AVAX, and LINK trading to its crypto platform.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• U.S. August Chicago PMI

• Final U.S. August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

• Fed Chair Warsh delivers keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium

Macro Headlines

1. Warsh makes Jackson Hole debut, markets focus on inflation stance

Fed Chair Warsh will deliver a keynote speech at 10:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time, marking his first appearance at Jackson Hole to outline his policy framework since taking office. Markets are looking for clues on the inflation reaction function, the balance sheet, and the interest-rate path. If the speech lacks a clear framework, long-term Treasury yields could remain under pressure.

2. U.S. PCE disinflation stalls, expectations for rate hikes by year-end rise

The U.S. July PCE Price Index rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE rose 3.3%, leaving inflation still clearly above the Fed’s target. Interest-rate markets price the probability of a September rate hike at about one-third, while the probability of a rate hike by year-end has risen to around 74%. How Warsh balances inflation and economic growth will be key to tonight’s market volatility.

3. Nvidia earnings strengthen AI demand expectations, shares rise 8.7%

Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion and issued next-quarter revenue guidance above $105 billion, easing concerns about a slowdown in AI capital spending. Nvidia rose 8.7% on Thursday, helping push the Nasdaq Composite up 1.57%, though S&P 500 sectors outside technology were broadly weaker.

4. Bank of Korea raises rates for second straight meeting, benchmark rate reaches 3.0%

The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.0%, tightening policy for a second consecutive meeting and signaling a gradual rate-hike path. Rising rates and profit-taking after the previous day’s gains weighed on Korean equities, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leading declines among large tech stocks.

5. International oil prices fall more than 4% this week, U.S.-Iran talks outlook remains unclear

Brent and WTI crude have fallen about 5.3% and 4.3% this week, respectively. Although Iran and Oman reached partial arrangements on shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. said it had no intention of restoring previous agreement terms. Expectations of supply recovery and geopolitical risks continue to pull oil prices in opposite directions.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 0.41% at 66,405.34. Korea’s KOSPI Index closed down 1.79% at 6,788.88, with Samsung Electronics falling 2.82% and SK Hynix down 3.87%. In U.S. premarket trading, Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.3%, S&P 500 futures were nearly flat, and Dow futures rose about 0.2%.

• Crypto: The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 81, in the extreme greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.68 trillion, up about 0.9% over the past 24 hours. BTC traded near $79,800, up about 1.1% in 24 hours. Today’s trending cryptocurrencies: TRUMP rose more than 19%, while SOL gained about 5%.

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude fell about 0.7% to $89.10 per barrel, while WTI crude fell about 0.8% to $82.89 per barrel. Spot gold traded near $4,603.91 per ounce, while spot silver rose about 1.3% to $70.13 per ounce.

(Data as of August 28, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On August 28, according to Coinglass data, ETH, BTC, SNDK, XRP, XAU, and other contracts led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

On August 28, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $79,388 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $78,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.27 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $81,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $550 million. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 17:00 HKT on August 28, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 0.6817, indicating that bears currently hold a relative advantage.

4. Stock Futures Performance

On August 28, stock contracts broadly weakened. SNXX and MRVL led declines, falling 15.03% and 14.00%, respectively, while only NVDA edged up 0.29%. MRVL trading volume surged 153.32%, with OI rising 13.86%. SNDK fell 7.78% while OI increased 24.88%, suggesting increased short positioning and intensified capital divergence.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to Onchain Lens, BlackRock-related ETF wallets received 2,559.28 BTC and 9,340 ETH over the past nine hours, worth about $229 million in total.

• A newly created address bought about 10,170 ETH from Fidelity-related wallets, worth about $25.48 million.

• A newly created address received about 440,000 HYPE from FalconX, worth about $37.26 million.

• According to Lookonchain, a whale that previously made more than $11 million from long ETH positions opened a new 20x leveraged long position of 100,000 SOL, with a position value of about $10.45 million.

Blockchain Headlines

• On August 27 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $242 million, marking the ninth consecutive trading day of net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $278 million in net inflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC saw $83.63 million in net outflows.

• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $235 million over the same period, also marking the ninth consecutive trading day of net inflows. BlackRock’s ETHA saw $130 million in net inflows, while Fidelity’s FETH saw $56.23 million.

• U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded single-day net inflows of $60.91 million, the highest level this year. Bitwise’s BSOL contributed $40.20 million, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $1 billion.

• Charles Schwab announced that it will add spot trading for SOL, AVAX, and LINK to its Schwab Crypto platform in the coming months. Charles Schwab manages more than $12 trillion in client assets and has about 39 million active brokerage accounts.

• StarkWare said it completed the first quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction test. Its approach uses “signature grinding” to reduce the risk of exposing public-key information while transactions are awaiting confirmation.

• All three Solana governance proposals have reached the required quorum. Among them, SIMD-0550, which accelerates inflation reduction, has about 68.58% support, slightly above the two-thirds approval threshold. The fee-burn proposal has about 62.45% support, with voting still ongoing.

• Evernorth, the Ripple-backed XRP treasury company, has had its SPAC merger registration statement declared effective by the U.S. SEC. Shareholders will vote on September 30, and the company plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN.

• Dunamu, the operator of South Korea’s Upbit, established a strategic partnership with Visa to jointly explore stablecoin payments, cross-border settlement, and AI payment services.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• QCP Capital said continued spot ETF inflows still support Bitcoin, but the short covering that previously drove the rally is weakening. Combined with Warsh’s speech and interest-rate risks, the pace of short-term gains may slow.

• Bernstein expects Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 by mid-2027 in its base case and reach a cycle high of about $300,000 around 2029. The firm also lowered its Strategy price target to $350.

• Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok said that if Warsh fails to outline a clear policy framework, long-term rates could rise further. HSBC believes clarifying the Fed’s inflation reaction mechanism would help reduce the term premium on long-term Treasuries.