BTCC Daily (8.31) | U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates Again, Bitcoin ETF Nine-Day Inflow Streak Ends

Top Highlights

• Fed Chair Warsh reinforced his inflation-control stance, with market pricing for a September rate hike rising to about 60%. The U.S. two-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.33%.

• BTC traded near $78,200. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $202 million on August 28, ending a nine-trading-day streak of net inflows.

• The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated again over the weekend. The U.S. struck Iranian missile facilities on Larak Island, after which Iran launched retaliatory attacks. Brent crude moved back above $90.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• U.S. August Chicago PMI

• U.S. August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

• G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting

Macro Headlines

1. Warsh reinforces hawkish stance, Fed September rate-hike odds rise to about 60%

Fed Chair Warsh said at the Jackson Hole symposium that if policymakers cannot be confident that inflation is moving back toward the 2% target, there is still more work to do. He also said inflation remains too high and financial conditions are not restrictive enough. CME FedWatch shows that market pricing for a September rate hike has risen to about 60.4%, while the two-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.33%.

2. U.S.-Iran conflict escalates again, Brent crude returns above $90

The U.S. military struck Iranian missile launch facilities on Larak Island over the weekend, after which Iran launched attacks on targets in Jordan. Trump claimed that Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal had been destroyed, though the report has not been independently verified. Geopolitical risks pushed Brent crude up more than 2%, back above $90 per barrel.

3. China August manufacturing PMI rebounds to 49.8, production and demand indicators return to expansion

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed that the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The production index rose to 50.4, while the new orders index climbed to 50.6. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs reached 51.4% and 52.9%, respectively. The non-manufacturing business activity index remained at 49.0%.

4. Marvell falls 10.28% after earnings, U.S. chip stocks come under pressure

In the previous session, Marvell fell 10.28%, Nvidia dropped 4.57%, AMD declined 2.33%, and Intel fell 2.85%. Although Marvell reported strong results and raised its long-term revenue outlook, investors were concerned that the main revenue contribution from its custom-chip partnership with Google may not become clearly visible until fiscal 2029, weighing on the AI chip sector.

5. FSB warns frontier AI models may amplify cybersecurity risks in financial system

Financial Stability Board Chair and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a letter to G20 finance ministers and central bank governors that frontier AI models could increase risks to the financial system by discovering and exploiting unknown cyber vulnerabilities. He called on countries to build stronger mechanisms for model release, risk response, and recovery of critical financial infrastructure.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 0.14% at 66,311.93. Korea’s KOSPI Index fell as much as 3.55% intraday before rebounding to close up 0.46% at 6,820.02, with Samsung Electronics rising 1.17% and SK Hynix gaining 1.27%. In U.S. premarket trading, Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.2%, S&P 500 futures fell about 0.3%, and Dow futures declined about 0.3%.

• Crypto: The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 74, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.63 trillion, down about 0.4% over the past 24 hours. BTC traded near $78,200 and was roughly flat over 24 hours. Today’s trending cryptocurrencies: XMR rose about 9.9%, while SOL fell about 2.4%.

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude rose about 2.5% to $90.32 per barrel, while WTI crude rose about 2.4% to $85.41 per barrel. Spot gold fell about 0.8% to $4,417.04 per ounce, while spot silver fell about 0.4% to $66.10 per ounce.

(Data as of August 31, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On August 31, according to Coinglass data, ETH, BTC, SOL, XRP, DOGE, and other contracts led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

On August 31, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $78,143 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $76,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $700 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $960 million. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 17:00 HKT on August 31, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 1.0034, indicating that long and short forces are relatively balanced.

4. Stock Futures Performance

On August 31, stock contracts were broadly weaker. SOXL rose 1.31%, while Samsung Electronics edged up 0.02%. SKHYNIX and SKHY fell 1.52% and 1.53%, respectively, and SKHX declined 1.35%. Trading volume increased sharply, with Samsung Electronics volume surging 1,339.61% and SKHX volume rising 1,015.73%. SNDK fell 0.12% while OI rose 4.20%, showing that capital divergence remains clear.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to Lookonchain, Metaplanet again transferred 2,400 BTC to Coinbase Prime, worth about $186 million. The company had previously accumulated about 43,000 BTC.

• According to Onchain Lens, Wintermute’s total short positions on Hyperliquid were about $149.2 million, while long positions were about $5.01 million. Its overall unrealized profit was about $1.73 million, with ETH, SOL, and BTC as the main short positions.

• Wintermute transferred a cumulative 5,100 BTC to Binance over the past two days, worth about $399 million.

• USDC Treasury minted an additional 250 million USDC on the Solana network today.

Blockchain Headlines

• On August 28 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $202 million, ending a nine-trading-day streak of net inflows. The previous inflow streak had provided important spot capital support for BTC.

• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of about $102 million over the same period, marking the tenth consecutive trading day of net inflows, with total ETF assets of about $13.8 billion.

• U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded weekly net inflows of about $154 million, with Bitwise’s BSOL seeing about $99.47 million in net inflows. Total SOL ETF assets rose to about $1.43 billion.

• U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded weekly net inflows of about $110 million, with Bitwise’s product seeing about $59.95 million in net inflows and Franklin’s XRPZ seeing about $28.70 million.

• Bank of America Global Investment Strategy data showed that crypto funds attracted about $3.2 billion in inflows last week, the largest weekly inflow since October 2025.

• Financial Times data showed that crypto projects have spent about $640 million buying back their own tokens since the start of 2026, a record high. Hyperliquid and pump.fun together contributed nearly 90%.

• CryptoRank data showed that outstanding DeFi loans rose from about $20.1 billion in June to about $26.1 billion in August, an increase of nearly 30%. Aave had about $12.5 billion in outstanding loans, accounting for around 48% of the total market.

• Discussions on tokenized finance at the Jackson Hole symposium noted that blockchain can improve securities trading and settlement efficiency, but large-scale tokenized markets still need reliable settlement assets and central bank infrastructure support. The European Central Bank is advancing related projects such as Pontes and Appia.

• The Solana network minted an additional 250 million USDC today, and stablecoin supply continues to be one of the key indicators of liquidity changes on Solana.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• Barclays said Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech was clearly hawkish and now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in both September and December. The firm had previously expected no further rate hikes for the rest of the year.

• Commerzbank FX strategist Thu Lan Nguyen said that although Warsh’s speech pushed the dollar higher, a September rate hike is not yet certain. U.S. employment and inflation data will still determine the policy path, so further upside for the dollar may be limited.

• Goldman Sachs estimates that crude exports from the Persian Gulf region are currently about 15 million to 16 million barrels per day. Although still below pre-conflict levels, they have recovered significantly from the March low, with some shipments possibly completed through night navigation.

• Financial Stability Board Chair Andrew Bailey said the cyberattack capabilities brought by frontier AI models may become a new systemic financial risk. Regulators and financial firms need to strengthen international coordination and build the ability to restore critical systems after major attacks.