China's credit pulse indicator flashes a red light, Bitcoin may face risks

According to CoinDesk, the "credit pulse" indicator, which measures the speed of new credit in China relative to GDP changes, is flashing red. The Bloomberg China Credit Pulse Index recently reported 20.84 points, the lowest level since 2008. This indicator was proposed by economist Michael Biggs in 2008 and is considered related to the global manufacturing cycle, leading S&P 500 returns by about 12 months.Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale, warned that ignoring China's recent monetary tightening could become "the biggest investment mistake of the decade." Despite the weakening indicators, Bitcoin surged 25% in August and briefly broke through $80,000, mainly driven by inflows from U.S. spot ETFs, short covering, and a catch-up rally of previously lagging assets compared to the stock market.Looking ahead, there are two scenarios: one is that Bitcoin continues to rise, as current crypto trading is primarily driven by U.S. institutional funds, reducing sensitivity to signals from China's credit conditions; the other is that if U.S. stocks decline as Edwards predicts, risk aversion may spill over into Bitcoin. Which scenario will materialize remains to be seen.