Samsung Set for Best Quarterly Profit Since 2018, Fueled by Soaring DRAM Memory Prices

• Why is Samsung's Profit Skyrocketing?
• How Does This Quarter Compare to Samsung's History?
• What's Behind the DRAM Price Surge?
• Is Samsung Making Progress in AI Chips?
• What Are the Risks to Samsung's Recovery?
• How Are Investors Reacting?
• What's Next for Samsung?
• FAQs About Samsung's Financial Turnaround

In a remarkable turnaround, Samsung Electronics is poised to report its highest quarterly profit in over five years, driven by a surge in DRAM memory chip prices. Analysts project a staggering 160% year-over-year increase in operating profit for Q4 2025, potentially reaching 16.9 trillion won ($11.7 billion). This resurgence comes after a challenging period for the tech giant, marked by supply chain disruptions and fierce competition in advanced AI chips. The DRAM shortage has created a perfect storm for Samsung, whose production capabilities are heavily weighted toward conventional memory chips.

Why is Samsung's Profit Skyrocketing?

The memory chip market has become a goldmine for Samsung, with DDR5 DRAM prices skyrocketing 314% year-over-year in Q4 2025 according to TrendForce data. What's fascinating is how this plays directly to Samsung's strengths - while competitors like SK Hynix and Micron focused on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI applications, Samsung maintained significant capacity in conventional DRAM production. Now, with both AI and traditional computing demanding more memory, Samsung finds itself in the catbird seat. Industry watchers note that every 1% increase in DRAM prices translates to about 200 billion won ($138 million) in additional operating profit for Samsung.

How Does This Quarter Compare to Samsung's History?

This quarter's projected 16.9 trillion won profit WOULD mark Samsung's best performance since Q2 2018, when it posted 17.6 trillion won. But here's the kicker - some analysts have recently revised their forecasts upward to over 20 trillion won, as chip prices continue climbing faster than anticipated. To put this in perspective, Samsung's operating profit was just 6.49 trillion won in the same quarter last year. The company's semiconductor division, which typically accounts for about half of total profit, is expected to drive nearly 80% of earnings this quarter.

What's Behind the DRAM Price Surge?

The memory chip shortage stems from a perfect storm of factors: manufacturers shifting capacity to AI processors, pandemic-era supply chain disruptions, and unexpectedly strong demand from both consumer electronics and data centers. TrendForce analyst Avril Wu explains, "The DRAM market is experiencing its tightest supply situation since 2017. Samsung, with its massive conventional DRAM production capacity, is positioned to benefit disproportionately from this cycle." Prices for conventional DRAM are forecast to jump another 55-60% in Q1 2026, which could set up Samsung for an even stronger first quarter.

Is Samsung Making Progress in AI Chips?

While conventional DRAM is driving current profits, Samsung has also made quiet progress in next-generation HBM4 memory chips for AI applications. CEO Jun Young-hyun recently hinted at positive feedback from clients, saying "Samsung is back" in the high-performance memory race. Though he didn't name clients, industry sources suggest Samsung may finally be gaining ground supplying Nvidia, which currently sources most AI memory from SK Hynix and Micron. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's recent comments about next-gen chips entering full production suggest Samsung could be positioning itself for a bigger role in 2026's AI hardware boom.

What Are the Risks to Samsung's Recovery?

Not everyone is bullish on Samsung's outlook. Lee Min-hee of BNK Investment & Securities cautions that higher chip prices could eventually dampen demand for PCs and smartphones - Samsung's second-largest business segment. There's also concern that AI data center spending might slow as companies grapple with rising debt costs. Meanwhile, Samsung's mobile division faces margin pressure from those same rising chip costs. TM Roh, head of Samsung's mobile business, acknowledged the challenge: "No company is immune to these market conditions. We're working to minimize the impact, but there are no easy solutions."

How Are Investors Reacting?

Samsung shares soared 125% in 2025 - their best annual performance since 1999 - as investors anticipated this recovery. However, shares dipped 2.1% on Tuesday amid broader market weakness, suggesting some profit-taking after the recent rally. The stock remains about 15% below its all-time high set in 2018, leaving room for further gains if the memory chip boom continues. Analysts now project Samsung's full-year 2026 operating profit could surpass 100 trillion won, more than double 2025's expected total.

What's Next for Samsung?

Samsung will release preliminary earnings Thursday, with full results later this month. All eyes will be on the company's capital expenditure plans - whether it will invest more in conventional DRAM capacity or shift focus to AI-optimized memory. The coming months will also reveal whether Samsung can translate its HBM4 progress into meaningful market share gains against SK Hynix. One thing's certain: after a difficult 2024 that saw CEO Jun publicly apologize for poor performance, Samsung enters 2026 with renewed momentum and multiple paths to continued growth.

FAQs About Samsung's Financial Turnaround

What's driving Samsung's profit surge?

The dramatic increase in DRAM memory chip prices, which have risen 314% year-over-year, is the primary driver. Samsung's heavy focus on conventional DRAM production positions it to benefit disproportionately from this trend.

How does this quarter compare to Samsung's historical performance?

At 16.9 trillion won, this would be Samsung's most profitable quarter since Q2 2018 (17.6 trillion won) and a 160% increase from the same quarter last year (6.49 trillion won).

Is Samsung making progress in AI chip technology?

Yes, CEO Jun Young-hyun recently indicated positive client feedback on Samsung's HBM4 memory chips, suggesting progress in competing for AI-related memory business against SK Hynix and Micron.

What are the risks to Samsung's recovery?

Key risks include potential demand destruction from higher chip prices, slowing AI data center investment, and margin pressure on Samsung's smartphone business from those same rising component costs.

How have Samsung shares performed?

The stock gained 125% in 2025 but has seen some recent profit-taking, dipping 2.1% on Tuesday amid broader market weakness.