Minerva (BEEF3) Poised to Gain from EU Trade Deal After China Export Woes

• Why the EU-Mercosul Deal Matters for Brazilian Beef
• The Premium Market Opportunity
• Minerva’s Path to Recovery
• Spillover Effects for JBS and Marfrig
• What’s Next for Brazil’s Meatpackers?
• FAQs

In a major boost for Brazil’s agribusiness, the historic EU-Mercosul trade deal is set to be signed next week, opening doors for Minerva Foods (BEEF3) to diversify its exports beyond China’s restrictive quotas. Analysts highlight the beef sector as a prime beneficiary, with premium cuts like picanha and filet mignon likely to dominate European demand. Here’s a deep dive into the implications for Minerva, JBS, and Marfrig.

Why the EU-Mercosul Deal Matters for Brazilian Beef

After nearly 30 years of negotiations, the EU and Mercosul have finalized one of the world’s largest free-trade agreements. For Brazil’s beef industry, this couldn’t come at a better time. China—the top buyer of Brazilian beef—slapped import caps in late 2025, hitting Minerva hardest (59% of its Q3 revenue came from China). The EU, already Brazil’s second-largest beef importer, offers a lucrative alternative. From January to November 2025, exports to Europe surged 83.2% YoY to $820.15 million, per TradingView data.

The Premium Market Opportunity

“Europe’s declining domestic production creates a gap Brazil can fill,” notes Fernando Iglesias, protein analyst at Safras & Mercado. “But the real win is premiumization.” While cheaper front cuts dominate China-bound shipments, the EU favors high-value rear cuts (think ribeye, sirloin)—a segment that commands 20–30% higher margins. Minerva’s shift toward this premium mix could soften the China blow, though Iglesias cautions: “The EU deal helps, but replacing 400K–500K tons of lost Chinese demand won’t happen overnight.”

Minerva’s Path to Recovery

BEEF3 shares have languished since China’s quotas took effect, but the EU deal offers a lifeline. Santander analysts note Minerva’s heavy China exposure makes it the most vulnerable—and the most incentivized to pivot. Europe’s appetite for traceable, sustainable beef aligns with Minerva’s ESG-focused farms, potentially unlocking premium pricing. Still, diversification remains key: “This isn’t a silver bullet,” Iglesias stresses. “Brazil needs 3–5 new markets to offset China fully.”

Spillover Effects for JBS and Marfrig

While Minerva grapples with beef quotas, JBS and Marfrig stand to gain from the deal’s poultry and pork provisions. Europe imports over 1 million tons of Brazilian chicken annually—a sector where JBS leads. Pork, however, faces tougher EU competition. “Chicken is the low-hanging fruit,” says Iglesias. “For pork, we’ll need tariff phases to compete with local producers.”

What’s Next for Brazil’s Meatpackers?

Short-term, expect Minerva to ramp up EU-bound shipments of premium cuts while hedging with Middle Eastern buyers. Long-term, the deal could accelerate Brazil’s shift from commodity beef to branded, high-margin products—a transition JBS began years ago. As one industry insider quipped, “Filet mignon pays better than frozen patties.”