Bitcoin New Whale Loss-Taking Fades: End Of Capitulation?

Bitcoin's big-money panic selling just hit the brakes—and the charts are whispering about a major sentiment shift.

Whales Stop Bleeding

Fresh data shows a steep drop-off in loss-taking by new whale wallets. These are the deep-pocketed investors who bought near recent highs, and their sudden reluctance to sell at a loss is the first real signal that the fear might be exhausting itself. It's the market equivalent of a wounded bull deciding not to run anymore.

Reading the On-Chain Tea Leaves

This isn't about gut feeling. On-chain analytics track wallet movements in real-time, and the metric for 'new whale realized losses' has flatlined. When the guys who usually move markets stop dumping, everyone pays attention. It suggests the most painful, forced selling could be over—clearing the way for more stable price discovery. Forget the talking heads; the blockchain doesn't lie to protect its bonus.

What Capitulation's End Really Means

If this is the tail end of capitulation, it doesn't guarantee a moon shot tomorrow. It does, however, signal that the foundation is getting firmer. The weak hands have likely been shaken out, and the remaining holders are more convicted. The next phase often involves accumulation, a quieter period where smart money stacks sats while retail is still staring at the last red candle. It's the boring bit that makes the next rally possible.

So, is the crypto winter thawing? The whales seem to think the deepest freeze is over. Now we see if the rest of the market has the stomach to follow.

Bitcoin Whale Selling Has Returned To Neutral Recently

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has talked about how the behavior of the Bitcoin whales has changed recently. “Whales” refer to the BTC investors who are carrying more than 1,000 tokens of the cryptocurrency in their wallet balance.

At the current exchange rate, the cutoff for the cohort converts to $86.7 million, which is quite significant. The large size of their holdings can make these investors carry some degree of influence in the market.

As such, the behavior of the whales can be worth keeping an eye on. There are many ways to track whale behavior, with one such being through the Realized Profit/Loss indicator.

This metric measures, as its name implies, the net amount of profit or loss that the members of the group as a whole are realizing through their transactions. A positive value indicates profit-taking is dominant, while a negative one suggests realized losses outweigh profits.

Whales can be divided into two subgroups, called the short-term holder (STH) or New Whales and long-term holder (LTH) or Old Whales. The former group includes the whale investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days, while the latter is made up of the whales who have been holding for longer than this period.

Now, here is the chart shared by CryptoQuant that shows the trend in the bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss for New and Old Whales over the last few months:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss has mostly been inside the loss territory for the whales since the cryptocurrency’s price witnessed a bearish shift in October.

New Whales in particular have been responsible for the majority of the loss realization, with one loss-taking spike even crossing the $600 million mark. “Realized losses from new whales significantly impacted the price drop from $124K to $84K,” noted the analytics firm.

From the chart, it’s visible that loss realization from these humongous Bitcoin investors has seen a decline recently as BTC’s bearish momentum has subsided and its price has settled into a phase of consolidation.

During the past week, the Realized Profit/Loss has even minimized to a neutral level for both New and Old Whales, implying the largest of hands in the market have only been shifting coins close to cost basis.

Whether this suggests that the phase of whale capitulation is over only remains to be seen, but for now, these investors have indeed hit the pause button.

BTC Price

Bitcoin started the week with a recovery surge above $90,000, but the asset has quickly gone downhill as it’s back at $87,000.