Bitcoin Veteran Investors Hold Firm As Sell-Side Activity Declines – Is Distribution Finally Over?
Bitcoin's old guard isn't budging. On-chain data reveals a striking drop in selling pressure from long-term holders, sparking debate: has the prolonged distribution phase finally run its course?
The Veteran Hold
Forget the day traders and leveraged speculators. The real story unfolds in the wallets of Bitcoin's earliest adopters. These veterans, who weathered multiple cycles, are showing remarkable discipline. Their coins aren't moving to exchanges; they're staying put in cold storage. This isn't mere hodling—it's a calculated bet on scarcity.
Reading the On-Chain Tea Leaves
Blockchain analytics paint a clear picture. Key metrics tracking coin dormancy and exchange inflows have turned decisively green. The supply shock narrative gains steam when the most experienced players refuse to sell, even as traditional finance pundits scratch their heads. It's a silent vote of confidence that speaks louder than any CNBC segment.
A Turning Tide for BTC?
This behavioral shift could signal a critical inflection point. Historically, sustained declines in sell-side activity from this cohort have preceded major supply squeezes. The market mechanics are simple: reduced selling + steady demand = upward pressure. Of course, this assumes demand exists—never a guarantee in a sector where 'fundamentals' can mean anything from hash rate to Elon Musk's latest tweet.
The bottom line? While Wall Street frets over quarterly earnings, Bitcoin's original investors are playing a different game entirely. Their patience suggests they're looking past the next Fed meeting toward a much longer horizon. Whether this is the calm before the next parabolic move or simply veterans waiting for a better exit remains the trillion-dollar question. After all, in crypto, 'diamond hands' often just mean someone missed their sell target.
Selling Pressure From Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Eases
Even with ongoing heightened volatility hampering the Bitcoin price movement, bullish sentiment is returning among veteran investors or long-term holders. These key investors seem to be shifting gears again a report shows that selling pressure from the group has noticeably dropped.
This report from Darkfost, a market expert and CryptoQuant’s author, challenges the ongoing notion that long-term BTC holders are selling their coins more than ever. “While we still see many posts claiming that LTHs are selling more than ever, the reality is quite different,” the expert stated.
Bitcoin long-term holders here indicate wallet addresses that have held the coin for more than 6 months. Meanwhile, wallet addresses holding for less than 6 months are considered short-term holders.
Darkfost conducted the research by adjusting the chart to isolate the movement of nearly 800,000 BTC from Coinbase, which was distorting long-term holder data. As viewed in the LTH Supply Change 30d Sum (Coinbase Fix) metric, the chart shows a clear shift in supply change.
According to the data, the supply change in the monthly time frame has been firmly anchored in a distribution phase since July 16, until recently. In other words, the share of supply held by long-term holders had been in a steady decline for several months.
The shift suggests that these investors are now more likely to stick with their positions, indicating a resurgence of conviction in the larger trend of Bitcoin. Furthermore, it comes at a critical juncture for the market, which provides new insight about emotion, supply dynamics, and potential future price action.
A Small But Important Change In Supply
After a period of downside movement, the chart has now moved back into positive territory, as over 10,700 BTC were observed transitioning into long-term held coins. While this is still a very modest change in the action of investors, it is not insignificant.
Meanwhile, with this change, long-term holders appear to have reduced their selling pressure to the point where their supply is beginning to exhibit an increase again. At the same time, short-term holders continue to hold their BTC.
In the past, Darkfost stated that these kinds of changes have frequently preceded the emergence of bullish recoveries or consolidation stages. However, this trend depends on how the broader trend evolves.
At the time of writing, bitcoin is hovering near the $87,300 level. However, within just a few hours on Monday, the price of BTC witnessed an increase of $3,000. According to Darkfost, this slight pump is mainly triggered by activity in the derivatives market as its Open Interest surged by $2 billion over the same period.
When this kind of move occurs, it is often short-lived. This is because Leveraged positions tend to be temporary, which commonly prevents the market from forming a healthy base for a sustained bullish reversal.
