Bitcoin Bear Market Alert: 2021-2022 Weak Market Structure Returns — Here’s What It Means
Bitcoin's structural ghosts are back from the dead.
The same fragile market architecture that fueled the 2021-2022 collapse is re-emerging, threatening to undermine the current rally's foundation. It's a chilling case of market memory—or perhaps a testament to how little the underlying mechanics have truly evolved.
The Anatomy of a Repeat
Look past the price charts. The real story is in the order books and leverage ratios. We're seeing a familiar pattern: excessive speculative derivatives stacking atop thin spot liquidity. It creates a market that's all horsepower, no brakes—prone to violent, cascading liquidations when sentiment shifts.
Why This Time Isn't Different (Yet)
Proponents will point to institutional adoption and ETF inflows as a new bedrock. But capital flows can reverse. The structural weakness isn't about who's buying, but how the market is built to handle stress. High leverage in a low-liquidity environment is a recipe for disaster, regardless of whether the money comes from a hedge fund or a retail trader.
The Finance World's Cynical Take
Traditional finance veterans are watching with a mix of schadenfreude and déjà vu. To them, it's another cycle where crypto confuses technological innovation with financial maturity—building a digital skyscraper on the same shaky regulatory and structural sand.
The clock is ticking. Either the market builds genuine resilience, or it's destined to replay its greatest hits. The choice is stark: evolve the structure or endure the crash.
Bitcoin On-Chain, Technical Indicators Combine To Paint Bear Picture
In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, OnChain explains that Bitcoin is showing early signs of structural weakness on the weekly chart, similar to what happened in 2021–2022. The analyst confirms this theory by consulting a combination of price-based technical indicators and on-chain demand metrics to determine the right market situation. These include: 4 Anchored VWAPs (2021 ATH, 2025 ATH, 3rd halving, and 4th halving), the SMA50, Realized Price – UTXO Age Bands (6-12 months), and Bitcoin Apparent Demand.
The application of these indicators to the Bitcoin weekly chart highlights areas of similar price structure in the present market and in 2021/2022. Notably, in Areas 1, as seen in the chart below, it is observed that Bitcoin for the first time simultaneously trades below the average price since the last all-time high (anchored VWAP), the SMA50, and also the realized price of coins held for 6–12 months. In the previous cycle, when BTC first fell below all these levels together, it marked the start of a broader weakening phase, rather than a brief correction. In Areas 2, OnChain reports that in both cycles, Bitcoin finds support at the anchored VWAP to its last halving for the second time in each cycle. Following the price correction halt, BTC attempted a mini-rebound in 2022 but faced strong resistance at all indicators from Areas 1, before slipping into a multi-month downtrend.
According to the market analyst, the indicators highlighted in Areas 1 are presently positioned around the $98,000 – $101,000, presenting the next point of major resistance. Meanwhile, all this reported price action is occurring as Bitcoin Apparent Demand continues to crash suggest a visible lack of buying pressure. OnChain notes another concerning similarity as Apparent Demand is also nearing the negative territory, similarly to 2021-2022.
BTC Market Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $90,500 following a minor price decline of 0.58% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, its monthly loss stands at 1.9%, indicating the bulls continue to struggle for market control. While there are alarming signs of growing market weakness, there are also potential positive developments. One of which is the Clarity Act, as highlighted by OnChain, the potential impact of which, following enactment, largely remains unknown.
