Solana Price Prediction: SOL Battles Below $130 as Whale Shorts and Bearish Structure Target $105–$78

Solana's price action hits a critical inflection point. The once high-flying asset now wrestles with a stubborn resistance wall at $130, pressured by a cocktail of whale positioning and a deteriorating technical setup.

Whales Flip the Script

Large holders aren't just sitting on their stacks—they're actively betting against the tide. Aggressive short positions from these deep-pocketed players inject sustained selling pressure, turning every rally attempt into a selling opportunity. It's a classic case of smart money positioning for a deeper correction.

The Chart Doesn't Lie

Technicals paint a clear, if grim, picture. A confirmed bearish structure has taken hold, shifting the market's focus from recovery to potential downside targets. Analysts now eye the $105 and $78 levels as the next logical support zones should the current floor give way. It's a reminder that in crypto, the trend is your friend—until it isn't.

This isn't just a dip; it's a stress test for Solana's underlying conviction. The network's fundamentals around speed and low cost remain, but the market's narrative has shifted from 'growth at all costs' to 'prove you can hold.' For now, the path of least resistance points down—a sobering reality for bulls who remember the euphoric rallies. Sometimes, the most sophisticated trade in finance is simply knowing when to step aside and let the panic play out.

Solana price is trading around the $125–$127 area, but short-term pressure remains heavy as sellers continue to defend overhead resistance and large players position for further downside.

While longer-term Optimism around Solana remains intact, recent price action and trader commentary suggest that SOL may not be done correcting yet, with several market watchers pointing to lower support zones before any meaningful recovery attempt.

Solana current price is $127.15, up 2.16% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin

Solana price is currently trading NEAR $127, according to data from Brave New Coin. Despite a minor bounce, price remains well below key weekly levels, keeping short-term momentum tilted to the downside.

Whale Short Position Signals Ongoing Downside Risk

One of the clearest short-term bearish signals comes from positioning data shared by analyst Ted Pillows. His chart highlights a large trader actively holding short exposure across major assets, including a $43.1 million short position in SOL, alongside significant shorts in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

A major whale continues to hold a $43.1M short position in SOL. Source: Ted Pillows via X

Such positioning suggests that large players are still leaning towards further downside or, at a minimum, continued weakness below resistance. While whale positions do not guarantee immediate follow-through, they often align with prevailing market sentiment. In this case, SOL remains below key resistance zones, making it difficult for upside moves to gain traction.

Until price invalidates this positioning by reclaiming higher levels, the presence of sizeable short exposure keeps the short-term outlook tilted toward caution rather than confidence.

Bearish Head-and-Shoulders Keeps $105 as a Key Breakdown Level

Adding to the downside case, analyst Elite crypto pointed to a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern forming on Solana’s higher-timeframe chart. According to his analysis, the structure remains intact as long as SOL trades below key resistance, with $105 acting as the critical neckline support.

A bearish head-and-shoulders structure keeps $105 in focus, with a clean breakdown potentially opening the door to a much deeper corrective move. Source: Elite Crypto via X

A decisive break below this level WOULD significantly weaken the broader structure and open the door to a deeper corrective move. Elite Crypto highlighted potential downside targets in the $75–$51 range, suggesting that, if triggered, the correction could extend well beyond a short-term pullback and persist into mid-2026.

While this scenario is conditional, it reinforces why many traders remain defensive at current prices despite recent rebounds.

$78 Identified as Major Long-Term Buy Zone

Another bearish-to-neutral perspective comes from analyst StefanB, who shared that he is only interested in accumulating solana at much lower levels. His analysis highlights the $78 region, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, as a zone where long-term risk-reward becomes more attractive.

The $78 level stands out as a potential long-term accumulation zone, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement where deeper demand could emerge. Source: StefanB via X

This approach implies that current prices may still sit above areas where stronger demand is expected to emerge. Rather than chasing short-term bounces, StefanB’s positioning suggests patience, with bids placed at levels that coincide with historical structure and deeper retracements.

Taken together with the $105 breakdown risk, this frames the current price zone as transitional rather than a confirmed bottom.

200-Week Support Offers Conditional Bullish Context

While short-term and medium-term signals lean bearish, longer-term charts introduce a conditional bullish element. Analyst ShardiB noted that Solana is currently interacting with its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically acted as major long-term support.

Solana price tests its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically acted as long-term support and could mark an early base if price manages to hold. Source: ShardiB via X

According to the analysis, Solana price is attempting to form a base near this zone, with early signs of a potential weekly bottom candle developing. In previous cycles, sustained holds above the 200-week level have often preceded longer-term recovery phases, though not without extended consolidation.

However, ShardiB also cautioned that failure to hold this area would significantly weaken the long-term outlook, reinforcing that bullish scenarios remain conditional rather than guaranteed.

Final Thoughts: Solana Technical Analysis

In the short term, Solana remains vulnerable below key resistance, with downside levels clearly defined. As long as solana price trades below the $135–$140 region, attention remains on $120 and, more importantly, $105 as critical support levels.

A confirmed break below $105 would increase the probability of a deeper MOVE towards $78, with further downside towards the $75–$51 zone possible if broader market conditions deteriorate. These levels align with multiple market watchers projections and higher-timeframe structures.

On the upside, any meaningful bullish shift would likely require SOL Solana price to hold long-term support and reclaim higher resistance levels over time. Such a move would signal that the corrective phase is transitioning into a broader base-building process rather than immediate trend reversal.