Tesouro Direto in 2026: IPCA vs. Inflation-Linked Bonds – Pre or Post-Fixed? Top Picks for the Year
- Why Fixed Income Still Dominates in 2026
- XP’s 2026 Fixed-Income Playbook
- BTG’s Top Bond Picks for 2026
- Fixed-Income Cheat Sheet: XP vs. BTG
- FAQ: Your 2026 Fixed-Income Questions Answered
Fixed income was the star of 2025, and analysts predict it’ll keep shining in 2026. With high interest rates likely to persist (even if the Selic drops slightly), public bonds remain attractive—especially when adjusted for risk. This year, the debate centers on,, and the ideal duration. XP and BTG weigh in with their top picks, from short-term LTNs to long-term NTN-Bs. Here’s how to navigate the fixed-income maze in 2026.
Why Fixed Income Still Dominates in 2026
Last year, public bonds thrived under high interest rates, and 2026 is shaping up to be no different. Even with potential Selic cuts, rates are expected to stay historically elevated, keeping fixed income competitive. Add in the volatility of other asset classes (looking at you, equities), and bonds become a no-brainer for risk-adjusted returns. As one BTCC analyst put it: "In a world where fiscal risks loom large—especially during election years—fixed income offers a rare combo of yield and stability."
XP’s 2026 Fixed-Income Playbook
XP Investimentos is doubling down on. Their mantra? Mix indexers wisely. For inflation-linked bonds (NTN-Bs), they favor intermediate maturities (avg. duration: 6 years), citing their "sweet spot" for risk-reward. Post-fixed bonds? Still a win for conservatives, thanks to the Selic’s stubbornly high levels. As for pre-fixed, XP warns of election-year turbulence but admits the BC’s firm stance could keep returns juicy. Their top tip: "Stick to 3-year terms and hold to maturity—no timing the market."
BTG’s Top Bond Picks for 2026
BTG Pactual is playing the curve. Their favorites:(think 2028/2029 vintages) to capitalize on rate cuts. For inflation protection, they’re all about, betting on a 30bps real-rate squeeze to outpace pre-fixed bonds. "We’re stacking short-term pre-fixed for immediate Selic drops and long NTN-Bs as inflation armor," says their team. Pro move: Pair both to hedge fiscal risks.
Fixed-Income Cheat Sheet: XP vs. BTG
| Firm | Pre-Fixed | Post-Fixed | Inflation-Linked |
|---|---|---|---|
| XP | "3-year terms, hold to maturity" | "Ideal for conservatives/short-term" | "Intermediate maturities (6y avg.)" |
| BTG | "LTNs maturing 2028–2029" | — | "NTN-Bs, especially 2035" |
FAQ: Your 2026 Fixed-Income Questions Answered
Should I prioritize IPCA or inflation-linked bonds?
It depends on your inflation outlook. IPCA bonds (like NTN-Bs) are safer if inflation spikes, while generic inflation-linked options may offer higher yields but carry more volatility.
Are pre-fixed bonds worth the risk in 2026?
Yes—but keep maturities short (2–3 years). The BC’s commitment to fighting inflation makes pre-fixed attractive, but election-year fiscal drama could cause hiccups.
How much of my portfolio should be fixed income?
Most analysts suggest 30–50% for balanced portfolios. Conservative investors might go higher, especially with post-fixed bonds yielding ~12% annually.
