Eutelsat Stock in 2025: Rocky Terrain or Hidden Opportunity?
- Why is Eutelsat's stock plunging despite analyst upgrades?
- How is the capital restructuring changing Eutelsat's shareholder landscape?
- What's driving the LEO segment's explosive growth?
- Technical analysis: Is Eutelsat oversold?
- When could sentiment shift for Eutelsat?
- FAQ: Key investor questions answered
Eutelsat's shares are under significant pressure today following a €1.5 billion capital increase, continuing a downward trend despite analysts' improved outlook on its balance sheet. The stock has lost over 15% this week and 28% in three months, trading at €1.73 with a theoretical 15.5% upside to BNP Paribas' €2 target. While the LEO segment shows 70.7% growth, technical indicators suggest oversold conditions (RSI at 28). The February 2026 half-year results will be crucial in determining whether Eutelsat can leverage its strengthened finances and LEO growth to regain investor confidence.
Why is Eutelsat's stock plunging despite analyst upgrades?
The €1.5 billion capital increase has significantly diluted existing shareholders, issuing 496.1 million new shares at €1.35 each. While the final tranche was 133% oversubscribed, the market reacted negatively to the expanded share count (now 1.178 billion shares). BNP Paribas' "Market Perform" rating today follows Deutsche Bank's upgrade from "Sell" to "Hold" last week, reflecting cautious Optimism about the improved balance sheet (projected net debt/EBITDA reduction from 3.9x to 2.5x by FY2025/26). However, these gradual rating improvements haven't stopped the bleeding - the stock remains 73% below its 50-day moving average of €2.99.
How is the capital restructuring changing Eutelsat's shareholder landscape?
The new share issuance has dramatically reshaped ownership:
- France now holds 29.65%
- Bharti Space Ltd controls 17.88%
- UK investors maintain 10.89%
- CMA CGM increased to 7.46%
- FSP holds 4.99%
What's driving the LEO segment's explosive growth?
Eutelsat is the only non-American, non-Chinese operator with an operational LEO constellation (IRIS²) and global reach. Management targets ambitious goals:
- €1.5-1.7 billion revenue by FY2028/29
- Minimum 60% EBITDA margin
- 50% annual LEO growth through 2025/26
Technical analysis: Is Eutelsat oversold?
Chart patterns suggest extreme conditions:
- RSI at 28 (below 30 = oversold)
- Price below all key moving averages (€2.25 20-day, €2.99 50-day, €3.37 200-day)
- 33.3% 1-month volatility indicates high risk
- Support at €1.83, resistance at €3.28
When could sentiment shift for Eutelsat?
Markets will focus on:
- February 13, 2026 half-year results
- Progress toward LEO targets
- Debt reduction milestones
FAQ: Key investor questions answered
Should I buy Eutelsat stock at current levels?
The 15.5% upside to BNP's €2 target is tempting, but with high volatility (33.3%) and unresolved dilution concerns, dollar-cost averaging might be prudent until the February results.
How reliable are the LEO growth projections?
While the 70.7% recent growth is impressive, maintaining 50% annual expansion requires flawless execution in a competitive sector where SpaceX dominates.
What's the biggest risk to Eutelsat's recovery?
Failure to meet the 2026 leverage target (2.5x net debt/EBITDA) could trigger renewed selling, as balance sheet concerns originally drove the stock's decline.
