Tesla Faces Weaker Delivery Outlook as Analysts Predict Second Straight Year of Declining Sales in 2024
- Why Are Tesla’s Q4 Deliveries Expected to Drop?
- Is 2024 Tesla’s Second Year of Falling Sales?
- What Happened to Tesla’s Massive Battery Supply Deal?
- FAQs: Tesla’s Delivery Drama Unpacked
Tesla’s delivery forecasts for Q4 2024 paint a grim picture, with analysts projecting a 10-15% drop compared to last year. The company is bracing for its second consecutive year of declining sales, driven by production halts, Elon Musk’s political controversies, and the expiration of federal tax credits. Meanwhile, a major battery supplier deal collapses, adding to Tesla’s challenges. Despite these headwinds, Tesla’s stock remains resilient, outperforming some market benchmarks. Here’s a DEEP dive into what’s going wrong—and why investors aren’t panicking yet.
Why Are Tesla’s Q4 Deliveries Expected to Drop?
Analysts estimate Tesla will deliver between 422,850 and 445,061 vehicles in Q4 2024, a 10-15% decline year-over-year. For the first time, Tesla publicly shared these projections on its website, a move that’s either transparent or desperate—depending on who you ask. The slump follows a record-breaking Q3, where U.S. buyers rushed to claim $7,500 federal tax credits before they expired in September. Once those incentives vanished, Tesla tried to soften the blow by releasing cheaper versions of the Model Y and Model 3, but demand hasn’t fully rebounded.
Is 2024 Tesla’s Second Year of Falling Sales?
Yep, and it’s not a fluke. Analysts predict Tesla will deliver ~1.6 million vehicles in 2024, down 8% from 2023. The decline stems from early-year production pauses (thanks to Model Y retooling) and the lingering shadow of Elon Musk’s polarizing alignment with the TRUMP administration. Fun fact: Tesla’s stock is still up 14% this year, though it’s trailing the S&P 500’s 17% gain. Maybe investors are betting on Musk’s next meme-worthy stunt?
What Happened to Tesla’s Massive Battery Supply Deal?
Poof—gone. South Korea’s L&F Co. announced its Tesla contract practically evaporated due to "changes in battery supply volume." Translation: The Cybertruck’s endless delays meant fewer orders, and the Inflation Reduction Act’s subsidy cuts didn’t help. L&F’s stock tanked 11% on the news, though the company insists its high-nickel battery shipments to other clients (like LG Energy Solution) are unaffected. Moral of the story? Don’t put all your batteries in one Cybertruck.
FAQs: Tesla’s Delivery Drama Unpacked
How bad is Tesla’s delivery slump?
It’s significant but not catastrophic. A 10-15% quarterly drop is worrisome, but Tesla’s brand loyalty and Musk’s cult-like following are keeping the stock afloat.
Will Tesla’s sales recover in 2025?
Too soon to tell. Factors like new models (Roadster, anyone?), macroeconomic conditions, and Musk’s Twitter/X antics will play a role.
Is L&F’s contract loss a big deal for Tesla?
Short-term pain, long-term shrug. Tesla has multiple battery suppliers, but the Cybertruck’s delays are becoming a recurring headache.
