Rocket Lab Stock in 2026: Defense Deal Fuels Investor Excitement – What’s Next?
- Why Is Rocket Lab’s Stock Suddenly a Defense Darling?
- Breaking Down the $1 Billion Revenue Opportunity
- Analysts Go Bullish – But Valuation Raises Eyebrows
- Electron’s Perfect Record vs. Neutron’s Delayed Debut
- The Bottom Line: High Risk, Higher Reward?
- Rocket Lab Stock: Key Questions Answered
Rocket Lab kicks off 2026 with a game-changing $816 million U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) contract, nearly doubling its previous defense deal. The stock surged to $75.99, nearing its 52-week high, as analysts raise targets to $90. But with a sky-high 70x revenue multiple and profitability still years away, is the HYPE justified? We break down the TRKT3 satellite program, Neutron rocket delays, and whether this space disruptor can truly compete with Lockheed Martin.
Why Is Rocket Lab’s Stock Suddenly a Defense Darling?
When Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) landed its "prime contract" for the Tracking LAYER Tranche 3 (TRKT3) program on December 19, 2025, Wall Street took notice. The $816 million award – a 58% jump from its previous record defense contract – positions the company alongside giants like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman in building next-gen missile-tracking satellites. Each of the four contractors will deliver 18 satellites equipped with Rocket Lab’s StarLite infrared sensors, designed to detect hypersonic threats. "This isn’t just another satellite order," notes BTCC analyst Mark Jensen. "TRKT3 effectively makes Rocket Lab a Tier 1 defense supplier overnight."
Breaking Down the $1 Billion Revenue Opportunity
The real financial upside goes beyond the headline $816 million. All 72 satellites in the constellation (including competitors’ units) will use Rocket Lab’s subsystems – from solar arrays to navigation software. When factoring in these components, total revenue could approach $1 billion. To put that in perspective:
- That’s 2x Rocket Lab’s trailing 12-month revenue of $489 million
- Space Systems division margins jumped to 31.4% in Q3 2025
- Backlog nearly doubled to $2 billion overnight
Analysts Go Bullish – But Valuation Raises Eyebrows
Needham’s upgrade to $90 (from $63) captures the Street’s enthusiasm, but skeptics highlight the rich multiples:
| Metric | Value | Industry Avg. |
|---|---|---|
| Price/Sales | 70x | 4.2x (Aerospace) |
| EV/Revenue | 68x | 3.8x |
| Cash Burn | $12M/month | N/A |
Electron’s Perfect Record vs. Neutron’s Delayed Debut
While the defense win dominates headlines, Rocket Lab’s launch business keeps delivering:
- 21/21 successful Electron missions in 2025 (79 total)
- 36.6% gross margins in launch services
- Neutron debut pushed to Q1 2026
The Bottom Line: High Risk, Higher Reward?
Rocket Lab’s 2026 story has all the makings of a breakout year: defense credibility, expanding margins, and a path to profitability. But with the stock pricing in perfection, any Neutron delays or TRKT3 execution stumbles could spark volatility. As one hedge fund manager put it: "This is either the next SpaceX or a cautionary tale about betting on ‘potential’ in aerospace."
Rocket Lab Stock: Key Questions Answered
Is Rocket Lab profitable?
Not yet. Analysts project positive EBITDA by late 2027, assuming Neutron achieves 12+ annual launches and Space Systems maintains >30% margins.
How does TRKT3 compare to SpaceX contracts?
While smaller than SpaceX’s $2.9 billion NASA moon lander deal, TRKT3 is significant as Rocket Lab’s first prime contractor role – previously it was always a subcontractor.
What’s the biggest risk for investors?
Execution risk. The company must simultaneously: 1) Deliver TRKT3 satellites on schedule 2) Achieve Neutron’s maiden launch 3) Scale manufacturing without quality issues.
