Crypto Markets Brace: Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold Ahead of Critical U.S. PCE Data

Traders hit the brakes as inflation jitters ripple through digital asset markets.

Market Pulse Check

Bitcoin and major altcoins face selling pressure while investors await the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric. The PCE release could dictate short-term momentum across crypto portfolios.

Defensive Positioning

Exchange reserves swell as holders move assets off-platform—a classic risk-off signal. Derivatives data shows put options gaining traction over calls for the first time this month.

Institutional Watch

Wall Street's crypto desks report muted ETF flows ahead of the economic data. Another hot inflation print might delay rate cuts that digital assets desperately need.

Because nothing says 'stable monetary policy' like watching trillion-dollar markets twitch over decimal points in inflation data.

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

• Plasma, a new blockchain purpose-built for stablecoins, launched its mainnet beta and native token XPL on Thursday, debuting with a fully diluted valuation that’s now above $12 billion.
• The layer-1 network, backed by Bitfinex, Bybit, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino and tech billionaire Peter Thiel, entered the market with over $2 billion worth of XPL tokens in circulation.
• Built for high-speed, low-fee stablecoin operations, Plasma aims to serve as the back end for a new class of DeFi applications. At launch, liquidity was already deployed across major platforms including Aave, Ethereum, Euler and Fluid.
• These include Plasma One, which is billed as a “stablecoin-native neobank.”
• Some tokens sold to U.S. investors are locked until mid-2026 due to regulatory restrictions, which may lower the effective float in early trading.

Derivatives Positioning

By Omkar Godbole

• Most major tokens, including BTC and ETH continued to experience capital outflows from futures market, leading to a decline in the notional open interest (OI).
• That's only to be expected as the market soon shakes out overleveraged bets.
• Notably, the BTC and ETH OI have continued to decline in the past couple of hours, raising questions about the sustainability of the minor price recovery.
• Smaller coins like KAS and KCS have seen a moderate increase in OI in the past 24 hours.
• Volume in crypto perpetuals listed on Aster DEX has surged to over $46 billion in the past 24 hours, significantly higher than Hyperliquid's $17 billion.
• On the CME, BTC futures OI has almost reversed the early September spike from 134K BTC to 149K BTC, representing renewed capital outflows. On the other hand, OI in options continues to rise, approaching the November 2024 high of 56.19K BTC.
• Positioning in ETH futures and options remains elevated on Deribit, with an annualized three-month basis at 7%, a significantly lower yield than SOL's 15%.
• BTC, ETH options risk reversals continue to lean bearish out to the December expiry, data from Deribit show. In SOL and XRP's case, pricing is biased bullish for the year-end expiry