US Shutdown Averted—Is Bitcoin Primed for a MOONvember Rally?
Markets exhale as DC kicks the can—again. Now crypto traders eye Bitcoin’s next move.
The Setup:
With the fiscal drama fading (for now), speculative capital sloshes back toward risk assets. Bitcoin, ever the drama queen, flirts with key resistance levels.
The Catalyst:
Liquidity crunches during shutdown threats historically sent BTC volatility soaring. This time? Traders whisper about a 'MOONvember'—where institutional FOMO meets year-end portfolio gambling.
The Jab:
Wall Street’s ‘hedge’ against government dysfunction? A decentralized asset they still don’t fully understand. Classic.
Watch the charts. Watch the macros. And maybe—just maybe—watch those diamond hands get rewarded.
Shutdown End Prediction: When Will the US Crisis Settle?
Today, the Senate is set to hold a crucial vote that could potentially discontinue the halt. Majority Leader John Thune aims to bring up the House-passed continuing resolution and amend it with a new expiration date and a package of spending bills.
In a recent X post, analyst Crypto Rover shared his shutdown end prediction. He stated that the closure is likely to conclude by mid-November.
According to Polymarket’s shutdown end prediction, the odds of the US govt closure ending before November 15 are relatively low, at 23%-28%. However, the likelihood of it ending after November 15 is significantly higher, at 47%.
Senate Leaders Push for Breakthrough
Senate GOP leaders are determined to settle the issues, with Majority Whip John Barrasso confirming lawmakers will be in session through the weekend. However, Democratic senators are pushing for a better deal and are likely to block the House's continuing resolution again without progress in negotiations. Despite this, John Thune remains optimistic about finding a solution, saying he's optimistic.
Republican senators are considering a limited change to the Senate's filibuster rules to fund the government without Democratic votes. They're discussing lowering the threshold from 60 votes to a simple majority of 51, but only for a "clean" continuing resolution without strings attached. This change wouldn't eliminate the 60-vote threshold entirely, as there's not enough Republican support for that. In fact, some senators doubt this limited change will even come to a vote.
Will Bitcoin Surge Post Settlement?
In his Twitter post, Crypto Rover has also shared insights on the possible Bitcoin price rally after the political turmoil subsides. He wrote, “Last time the U.S. government shutdown ended, Bitcoin skyrocketed. Now, it’s expected to end by mid-November.”
The image, shared by Crypto Rover, presents a comparison between Bitcoin's price charts in 2019 and a projected chart for 2025. The charts suggest a potential correlation between the govt closure and a significant increase in Bitcoin's price.
According to Crypto Rover's chart, the 2019 government halt was followed by a significant bitcoin price rally, with a period of decline preceding a sharp upward trend that began around the time the lapse ended. The 2025 chart, based on this pattern, predicts a similar price decline followed by an increase, with traders expecting the event by mid-November. The month is historically bullish, often known as MOONvember.
