Bitcoin Price Prediction: Still No Breakout as Year-End Volatility Craters

Bitcoin's big move? Still waiting. The flagship cryptocurrency continues to trade in a frustratingly tight range, defying typical year-end fireworks as market volatility hits rock bottom.

The Great Compression

Forget the moon—right now, Bitcoin can't seem to break out of its cage. Traders are staring at charts that show more horizontal drift than a sailboat in the doldrums. The usual December drama—the tax-loss harvesting, the portfolio rebalancing, the speculative frenzy—has evaporated, leaving a market so calm it's unnerving. It's the financial equivalent of watching paint dry, only with billions of dollars at stake.

Where's the Spark?

Everyone's asking the same question: what will light the fuse? Macro catalysts have fizzled, ETF flows have stabilized, and the news cycle offers more noise than signal. The market's stuck in a classic standoff between bulls clinging to the next halving narrative and bears waiting for the other shoe to drop. This isn't patience; it's paralysis. And in crypto, paralysis often precedes a violent move—the only question is which direction.

The Volatility Vanishing Act

The most telling metric isn't price—it's the VIX-like gauges for crypto. They're plumbing multi-month lows. Options markets are pricing in more of the same, with traders seemingly convinced that Santa won't be arriving with a volatility spike in his sleigh this year. It's a bizarre serenity that feels completely at odds with crypto's chaotic soul. Maybe everyone's just exhausted—a collective fatigue from the rollercoaster of the last few years.

So we wait. The breakout will come, as it always does. But for now, Bitcoin is doing its best impression of a traditional asset—boring, range-bound, and predictable. How's that for a plot twist? The ultimate rebel asset, now playing it safe. You've got to love the irony—or maybe that's just the cynical finance jab you were waiting for.

Bitcoin continued to trade in a narrow range on Monday, with price action showing little change over the past three weeks as markets head into the year-end period of low liquidity and reduced volatility.

A technical analyst tracking the daily chart said the MOVE still appears to be part of a broader wave-four rebound, with no confirmation yet of a direct breakout to the upside. Despite small intraday gains, chart structures across timeframes remain aligned and do not show a shift in trend.

Short-Term Moves Not Reflected in Broader Trend

According to the analyst, the recent uptick in trader sentiment on social media has been driven by minor green candles on shorter timeframes. But he added that these moves do not change the wider structure, which has remained largely unchanged for nearly a month.

He said traders should “zoom out” and separate short-term fluctuations from long-term patterns, stressing that a chart can appear bullish on lower timeframes while showing a different picture on higher ones.

Market Slows Ahead of Holiday Period

With the year-end holiday season approaching, the analyst expects slower price action to continue. Bitcoin has hovered within the same range for three weeks, and he said there is little preventing it from staying there until late December.

He added that big directional decisions from market participants are unlikely before early next year.

Technical Levels in Focus

The analyst continues to track a possible triangle pattern within the current consolidation. A break below $89,300 WOULD invalidate the pattern and likely push the price back toward Fibonacci support between $85,988 and $88,912.

A move above $94,620, the high point of the pattern’s B-wave, would be the first signal of a possible upside breakout.

Micro-support between $90,197 and $91,888 in case of an additional pullback within the structure.