Why Bitcoin’s Price Hasn’t Surged Much in 2025? The Bullish Case for Patience

Bitcoin's 2025 trajectory has left some investors scratching their heads—where's the moon shot?

The Consolidation Narrative

Forget the hype cycles of years past. This isn't stagnation; it's digestion. After the explosive rallies that defined earlier epochs, the market is building a more formidable foundation. Think of it as a coiled spring, not a deflated balloon. Major institutional adoption requires robust infrastructure, not just price pumps—and that's being built right now.

Regulatory Headwinds as a Feature, Not a Bug

Global regulators are finally playing catch-up, drafting frameworks that look suspiciously like legitimization blueprints. Sure, it creates short-term uncertainty—the kind that makes traditional finance guys clutch their pearls—but it's clearing the path for the next wave of capital. Every new compliance guideline effectively writes a welcome sign for the cautious, deep-pocketed funds waiting on the sidelines.

The Halving's Delayed Echo

Historical patterns suggest the full supply shock impact of the 2024 halving often manifests over a longer horizon. The market is a complex system, not a simple lever. Reduced new supply meets demand gradually; the fuse is lit, but the explosion isn't always instantaneous. Patience, as they say, is a speculative virtue.

A Maturing Asset's New Rhythm

Volatility is compressing, not vanishing. This is the sign of an asset class graduating from speculative toy to a core portfolio component. The wild, 20% daily swings are being replaced by steadier, institutional-grade momentum. It's less exciting for day traders, but far more attractive for the pillars of the global economy—who, incidentally, manage most of the world's wealth.

So, has Bitcoin stalled? Hardly. It's simply learning to walk on Wall Street before it runs again—and Wall Street, forever late to the party, is finally setting out a place for it at the table. Sometimes the biggest moves are the ones you don't see coming until they've already left the station.

Bitcoin usually sees strong gains in the year after a halving. This cycle, however, has looked different. Instead of explosive volatility, the price has remained relatively calm, even behaving like a stable asset at times. 

According to Jan3 CEO and Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow, this quiet phase is temporary, and a major price move is likely ahead.

Record Liquidations Didn’t Push Bitcoin Down Much

Earlier this year, the market experienced what Mow described as the largest liquidation flush ever. Altcoins fell sharply, but bitcoin only dropped around $20,000.

“Altcoins dropped to the depths, but Bitcoin was largely unaffected,” he said, highlighting the asset’s growing resilience. 

This shows that while the market experienced stress, Bitcoin’s price could absorb selling without a major crash.

Multiple Factors Are Limiting the Rally

Mow pointed out several reasons Bitcoin hasn’t surged yet:

• Profit-taking: Some investors are taking gains rather than buying more.
• Whale rotations: Large holders may be moving Bitcoin around, creating sideways pressure.
• ETF flows: Money moving into ETFs can affect how much buying pressure is reflected in the spot market.
• Exchange or “paper” Bitcoin selling: There may be selling that doesn’t reflect real Bitcoin demand.

“Maybe it’s paper Bitcoin, maybe it’s ETFs, maybe it’s profit-taking it could be many things,” he said.

Altcoins Ran Too Hot

Another factor is the earlier rally in altcoins. ethereum was reaching new highs, and XRP traded near $3.50, which Mow described as unsustainable. When altcoins correct, Bitcoin often dips briefly but then recovers. This rotation of attention and capital can keep Bitcoin from surging even when demand remains strong.

The Calm May Be Temporary

Mow emphasized that Bitcoin’s limited upside so far does not mean the market is exhausted. Supply constraints and continued demand suggest a price MOVE is inevitable.

“It’s impossible that someone ends up with 10% of the supply at these prices,” he said. “The price has to move sooner or later.”

For now, Bitcoin’s post-halving calm reflects a balance between selling pressure, profit-taking, and capital rotation. But according to this view, the quiet is likely just the calm before the next major move.