Galaxy Warns: At Least Five Crypto Treasury Firms Face Asset Sales or Closure by 2026

The crypto treasury management space is bracing for a shakeout. A new report from Galaxy Digital suggests the coming year could see a wave of consolidation, with at least five major players forced into asset sales or shuttering operations entirely.

### The Pressure Cooker

It's a perfect storm of tightening regulation, compressed margins, and a lingering bear market hangover. Firms that expanded rapidly during the bull run are now facing the music—their business models are being stress-tested in an environment where 'growth at all costs' no longer cuts it. The cheap capital that fueled their expansion? Vanished.

### The Domino Effect

This isn't just about a few companies failing. A forced liquidation or closure triggers a chain reaction. Client assets get locked up or sold at fire-sale prices, creating localized sell-pressure. It erodes trust in the entire institutional custody and treasury sector—precisely the trust the industry has spent years trying to build with traditional finance.

### Survival of the Fittest (and Best-Capitalized)

The report highlights a brutal bifurcation. Well-capitalized giants with diversified revenue streams will likely scoop up assets on the cheap, growing stronger. The smaller, niche players without deep pockets or a clear path to profitability are on the chopping block. It's a classic case of the big getting bigger while the rest get a lesson in financial Darwinism—or as Wall Street veterans might call it, Tuesday.

This looming consolidation, while painful in the short term, could ultimately leave the sector leaner, more robust, and better positioned for the next cycle. The survivors won't just be lucky; they'll be the ones who actually figured out how to turn a profit managing digital assets, not just how to spend venture capital money on fancy offices.

The rapid rise of crypto treasury companies could be facing its real test soon.

In its annual report, Galaxy Digital warned thatcould soon be forced to sell assets, merge with larger players, or shut down altogether as market conditions tighten.

The report points to growing pressure on firms that rushed into crypto treasuries without solid long-term strategies.

Digital Asset Treasuries – publicly listed companies that hold assets like Bitcoin or ethereum on their balance sheets – surged earlier this year as crypto prices climbed and financing became easier. But that momentum is fading fast.

mNAV Slips Below Key Levels

Galaxy highlighted a sharp shift in, a key metric that compares a company’s market value to the value of its crypto holdings. Many Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana-focused DATs are now trading at, meaning investors value these companies at less than their underlying assets.

“After the rush of companies across disparate business lines converting into DATs to capitalize on market financing conditions, the next phase will separate durable DATs from those without coherent strategies or asset management capabilities,” Galaxy’s Jianing Wu said.

Once mNAV falls below 1, issuing new shares becomes dilutive, limiting a company’s ability to raise capital and expand its crypto holdings.

A Crowded Trade Faces Reality

The DAT boom was fueled by bullish markets and friendlier regulation in the U.S., even as investors gained easier access to crypto through ETFs. Many DATs aimed to outperform spot crypto prices using tools like equity issuance and staking strategies.

But as prices decline, those models are under strain.

“The viability of DATCOs is closely tied to the persistence of an equity premium to NAV,” Macquarie analysts warned. “If this premium erodes or reverses to a discount, the model faces significant challenges”

Only the Strongest May Survive

Galaxy suggests that firms with scale, strong capital structures, and liquidity planning – such as Strategy or Japan-based Metaplanet – may weather the downturn. Others, especially late entrants without clear planning, may not.

For now, DATs hold less than 1% of the total crypto market. Still, Galaxy’s message is clear: the easy phase of the crypto treasury trade is over, and the next chapter will be about discipline, not hype.