Experts Question January’s Impact on Bitcoin Price: Is the Seasonal Pattern Breaking?

For years, January has worn a crown in the crypto calendar. The 'January Effect'—a supposed seasonal tailwind for Bitcoin—has been gospel for many traders. But a growing chorus of analysts is now picking apart that narrative, asking if it's more market myth than reliable rhythm.

The Historical Halo

Past performance charts did show a trend. Several Januarys saw Bitcoin kick off the year with notable gains, fueling a belief in a predictable, post-holiday resurgence. It became a data point in countless investment theses and year-ahead forecasts.

Cracks in the Calendar

That clean story is getting messy. Recent years have delivered January performances that range from tepid to turbulent, failing to live up to the hype. Experts point out that past correlation is not future causation—especially in a market now dominated by institutional flows, macro pressures, and ETF dynamics that simply didn't exist a few cycles ago.

A New Playbook

The old seasonal script might be obsolete. The market's drivers have matured, moving beyond retail sentiment cycles. Now, it's about Fed policy whispers, balance sheet expansions from mega-corporations, and the cold, hard calculus of global liquidity. Relying on the month on the calendar is like bringing a pocket watch to an atomic clock sync—a quaint but ultimately useless gesture.

What This Means for Your Stack

This isn't just academic. It forces a strategy shift. If January's magic is fading, investors need sharper tools: on-chain metrics, derivatives market structure, and macro indictors. The lazy trade of 'buying December for a January pop' carries more risk than reward. After all, in finance, any pattern simple enough for everyone to see is usually a trap waiting to spring. The real alpha now lies in decoding the new, complex signals—not waiting for an old seasonal ghost to appear.

In Brief

• Bitcoin is drawing attention again as January approaches, with the backdrop of its historical record of $109,000 reached in early 2025.
• 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder believes such a scenario is unlikely in 2026, due to an unfavorable macroeconomic environment.
• Several recent events, including a 10 % drop and a $19 billion liquidation, have weakened market sentiment.
• Despite this, some analysts remain optimistic in the medium term, betting on the growth of crypto ETFs, state interest, and Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven.

A Repeat of January ? Unlikely According to 21Shares

For Ophelia Snyder, co-founder of crypto investment product company 21Shares, investors should exercise caution regarding hopes for a new historic bitcoin high as early as January 2026.

Indeed, she states : “it is unlikely that the factors causing the current volatility will resolve in the short term”. She clarifies that “January’s performance will heavily depend on the overall market sentiment”.

In clear terms, BTC WOULD be more dependent on macroeconomic dynamics than on its own fundamentals. Snyder emphasizes that the recent drop is not related to crypto-specific factors but reflects a generalized risk aversion in global financial markets.

Snyder’s analysis is based on several important facts that affected its trajectory :

• Bitcoin reached a peak of over $126,000 in early October before beginning a marked pullback phase ;

• A massive $19 billion liquidation destabilized the crypto market on October 10, triggering a broad downward movement ;

• Market sentiment remains sluggish, limiting the likelihood of significant capital inflows, including via Bitcoin ETFs traditionally favored at the start of the year ;

• Finally, portfolio repositioning in January, although typical, may this time collide with a global uncertainty context, reducing its impact on prices.

Within this framework, Snyder tempers expectations about an explosive rebound early next year, estimating that current conditions do not lend themselves to a large-scale bull restart in the short term.

Structural Levers for a Long-Term Rebound ?

Despite this cautious stance, Ophelia Snyder does not rule out a bullish scenario in the medium to long term, supported by fundamental elements.

“I feel more optimistic because I believe this recent correction is a response to the general climate of risk aversion, rather than internal problems within the crypto industry,” she confides.

For her, several catalysts could foster positive momentum in the future, such as the expansion of the crypto ETF offerings on major platforms, or the rise of bitcoin as an alternative safe-haven asset to gold. Added to this is the growing interest of some states in cryptos, which could contribute to increased institutional adoption.

A dissenting voice supports the idea of a possible rapid return to the highs. Tom Lee, president of BitMine, believes bitcoin will reach a new historic high before the end of January 2026.

Although isolated, this prediction is based on historical observation. Since 2013, bitcoin has recorded an average +3.81% performance during January, according to CoinGlass data. This might be enough to trigger a technical rebound, even if its scale remains uncertain in an still fragile economic context.

The Bitcoin price remains suspended in a fragile balance between hopes for institutional adoption and economic uncertainties. Without a clear catalyst, the prospect of a new high seems uncertain despite a progressing market infrastructure.

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