Prediction Markets Bet Against BTC Hitting $100K By Year-end

Forget the moon. The smart money says Bitcoin's staying grounded.

Prediction markets—where traders bet on future events—are flashing red on the flagship crypto's most hyped price target. The consensus? That six-figure dream is looking more like a mirage as the year winds down.

The $100K Mirage

The narrative was simple: institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and a roaring bull market would catapult Bitcoin past the psychological barrier. Prediction markets, however, are calling that bluff. Their aggregated wisdom, often more sober than a crypto influencer after a market crash, suggests the path of least resistance isn't straight up.

It's a classic case of markets talking—and traders listening with their wallets, not their hopium inhalers. The implied probability of a year-end breakthrough has been slashed, reflecting a cocktail of macro jitters, regulatory overhangs, and that old crypto favorite: volatile sentiment.

Where's the Fuel?

Every rocket needs thrust. Analysts pointing to the charts whisper about weakening momentum and a concerning lack of fresh catalysts to ignite the next leg. The 'number go up' machine, it seems, needs a tune-up. Some even mutter about traditional finance's seasonal ghosts—year-end profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing—haunting the digital asset space.

Never say never in crypto, but the crowd-sourced crystal ball is looking cloudy. Betting against the crowd has made fortunes, but so has listening when the odds shift. One cynical take? Wall Street might love the volatility—it's great for trading fees—more than it loves any specific price target. The closer we get to December 31st, the louder that $100,000 ticker will echo... as a reminder of what could have been.

In brief

• The predictive markets Polymarket and Kalshi estimate the chances of a Bitcoin at $100,000 before the end of 2025 to be less than 35%.
• BTC caps below $95,000, hitting a major technical resistance around $94,000.
• The current ascending triangle configuration could lead to a rebound towards $98,000, but not beyond in the short term.
• The slowdown of institutional buying slows bullish momentum despite some massive purchases, such as those by Strategy.

Predictive markets decide : the $100,000 moves away

On predictive market platforms, the scenario of a bitcoin crossing $100,000 by December 31, after its drop below this threshold, is now largely in the minority.

Polymarket estimates this probability at only 29 %, while Kalshi, a platform regulated by the CFTC, shows 34 %. These figures, noted on December 11, reflect a market consensus: despite the bullish momentum of recent weeks, the current conditions do not seem to be met for an imminent crossing of this symbolic threshold.

The highest reached this month remains $94,600, a level not surpassed since November 13.

Several technical elements explain this caution among investors :

• The formation of an ascending triangle visible on short time frames, often interpreted as a bullish configuration, but which still needs confirmation ;

• A technical resistance located between $93,300 and $94,000, corresponding to the annual open zone, which BTC struggles to break through ;

• Daan Crypto Trades, an analyst followed on X, estimates that “the price is currently pressing against this resistance”, but that in case of a break, “it could simply retest the previous support zone around $98,000” ;

• The significant liquidity presence in this $98,000 zone could slow any upward attempt towards $100,000.

In other words, the market is in a technical waiting phase. The chart configuration opens the door for a rebound to $98,000, but does not give clear signals for a sustained crossing of the $100,000 mark in the very short term. The predictive markets therefore reflect a realistic sentiment rather than a complete rejection of the bullish scenario.

Weak institutional support

Beyond technical analysis, a key factor explains market caution: the visible slowdown of institutional purchases.

Capriole Investments points out that the daily bitcoin purchase rate by companies is declining. A dynamic that could reflect a FORM of exhaustion or caution, especially in an still uncertain macroeconomic context.

This slowdown in demand, often a driver of previous rallies, mechanically weighs on short-term prospects. Despite this, some players like Strategy continue their acquisitions. The firm has raised its holdings to 660,624 bitcoins, after a recent purchase of 10,624 BTC for approximately $962.7 million. However, these operations, although massive, are no longer enough on their own to pull the market up.

At the same time, expectations of a bullish revival linked to American monetary policy have not materialized. Despite the recent announcement of a Fed rate cut, investors did not rush into risky assets. The moderate crypto market reaction to this decision reflects a climate of persistent caution.

Bitcoin remains waiting for a clear signal, both technical and fundamental, to really start rising again. In this sense, immediate prospects remain constrained, even if the underlying trend remains structurally bullish according to several analysts.

In a context of persistent uncertainty, risk aversion is shaking the crypto market, relegating euphoric scenarios to the background. Bets are tightening, and the $100,000 threshold becomes less a target and more a test of patience for investors who are now more cautious than speculative.

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