Bitcoin’s Year-End Pressure Mounts As Crucial Cycle Faces Ultimate Test

Bitcoin stares down its most critical stress test yet as the calendar flips—and the entire crypto market holds its breath.

The Four-Year Cycle Under Fire

That familiar rhythm—the halving, the bull run, the peak, the trough—isn't just a theory on a chart anymore. It's the bedrock faith for millions of investors. Now, with year-end pressures converging, that foundational cycle faces its most public and punishing examination. Will historical patterns hold, or crack under the weight of a new macro reality?

Institutional Heat Meets Retail Fear

Forget the wild west days. This pressure cooker is fueled by Wall Street's cold calculus meeting Main Street's frayed nerves. Quarterly reports are due, fund managers are rebalancing, and tax implications loom—all while the retail crowd watches portfolios swing. It's a clash of timelines where short-term bookkeeping meets long-term technological conviction.

A Litmus Test for Digital Gold

This isn't just about price. It's a referendum on Bitcoin's core narrative. Does it behave as a risk-on tech asset, getting dumped when things get tight? Or does its 'digital gold' thesis win, attracting capital as a safe-haven play? The coming weeks will draw the battle lines, offering more clarity than any analyst report ever could.

One cynical truth remains: in traditional finance, they'd call this 'volatility.' In crypto, we call it Tuesday. But this particular Tuesday could define the next four years. The cycle's resilience isn't just being tested—it's being priced in, in real-time, by a market that never sleeps.

In brief

• Bitcoin is set to close 2025 in the red, a historic first after a halving.
• This situation calls into question the four-year cycle theory, a pillar of many investment strategies.
• Analysts warn about the importance of the $93,500 threshold, a critical level to avoid a bearish close.
• Other experts nevertheless identify positive signs, such as a bullish divergence on the 3-day RSI.

Annual close under pressure : the threat of a historic bearish signal

As the year-end approaches, bitcoin, abandoned by investors, seems unable to close 2025 on a positive note, a clear break with the usual post-halving year pattern.

Several concrete elements support this worrying observation :

• An unprecedented negative performance : as of December 27, bitcoin shows a performance of -6.1% since the beginning of the year. If this trend continues, this year would become the first post-halving year to close in the red ;

• A critical technical threshold : bitcoin is currently trading below $88,000, far from the annual opening price set at $93,500. This level is seen as a symbolic and technical pivot. Trader Keith Alan (Material Indicators) insists : “it’s the closes that matter the most”, emphasizing that temporary breaches of certain levels only have value if the close confirms the move ;

• Tensions around the four-year cycle model : this potential reversal would call into question the famous 4-year cycle theory. Ajay Kashyap, an active analyst on X, alerts : “if BTC closes in red, it would be a first in 14 years for a third year of bull market… It would signal a structural change and break the 4-year cycle thesis” ;

• Volatility compressed by market factors : despite a rebound attempt the previous weekend, bitcoin remained stifled by a tense technical context. In particular, the expiration of a record $24 billion volume of options on December 27 acted as a compressive force on the BTC price, preventing any real bullish move.

All these factors converge to a clear observation : the risk of a bearish annual close is real, and with it, that of a historic turning point in how the market structures its bullish and bearish cycles.

Technical and seasonal signals arguing for a rebound in 2026

Beyond the pressure exerted by the possibility of a bearish annual close, some analysts highlight technical and behavioral elements that could, on the contrary, announce a trend reversal of Bitcoin as early as January.

Trader Jelle identified a particular configuration on the three-day charts : “bitcoin locked in a bullish divergence on three days, just above a key support”, he stated on X. He recalled that the two previous market lows had been preceded by similar signals. This type of divergence on the RSI indicator could indicate that sellers are losing strength, potentially opening the way to a gradual recovery.

Added to these purely technical signals are behavioral elements. Trader BitBull notably mentions a recurring dynamic linked to institutional seasonality : “those who sold at a loss for tax reasons will buy back BTC. Investors will reallocate funds towards underperforming assets in January 2026, as they always do”.

This portfolio rebalancing strategy could, according to him, “trigger an exit from the current trend and a move towards $100,000”. A scenario that, if realized, WOULD lend credibility to the prospect of an extended bull cycle.

While the year-end uncertainties weigh on the market, some see it as a simple pause in a larger cycle. A renowned analyst predicts a historic bull decade for bitcoin, despite current turbulence. It remains to be seen whether 2026 will confirm this vision or mark a more lasting inflection of the post-halving dynamic.

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