Bitcoin’s 2025 Finale: Can It Still Close in the Green?

With the year's final trading hours ticking down, all eyes lock onto Bitcoin's chart. The digital gold's wild ride through 2025—marked by regulatory skirmishes, institutional adoption waves, and relentless macroeconomic crosswinds—hangs in the balance. Can it defy the skeptics and secure a positive year-end print?

The Bull Case: Inflows and Halving Momentum

Proponents point to the entrenched post-halving narrative. Historically, supply shocks have fueled extended rallies, and 2025's reduced block rewards continue to tighten available liquidity. Major asset managers now hold spot ETFs, creating a structural bid that wasn't present in prior cycles. Network fundamentals, from hash rate to active addresses, suggest underlying strength that often precedes price appreciation.

The Bear Argument: Exhaustion and Macro Headwinds

Detractors see a tired market. After a blistering run to new all-time highs earlier in the cycle, consolidation—or worse, a significant correction—feels overdue. Traditional finance hasn't fully shed its risk-off coat; every hint of higher-for-longer interest rates sends tremors through crypto portfolios. And let's be honest, the 'institutional adoption' story gets trotted out every year, sometimes just to distract from the fact that the market still dances to the tune of a few whale wallets and leveraged derivatives traders.

The Final Verdict Hinges on Liquidity

Forget the complex technical analysis for a moment. The year-end close boils down to a simple, brutal equation: liquidity. Will year-end portfolio rebalancing from traditional funds trigger a sell-off, or will crypto-native capital flood in to 'window dress' and chase performance? The answer often has less to do with blockchain ideology and more with the cold, hard calculus of bonus season—a cynical reality that would make any old-school financier smirk into their martini.

So, can Bitcoin still end 2025 in positive territory? The machinery is there—the narrative, the infrastructure, the hardened network. But markets are voting machines in the short term. The final candle on December 31st won't be lit by hope or hype, but by the final, decisive orders of the year. Place your bets.

In brief

• Bitcoin must climb 6.24% to avoid a historic post-halving red annual close.
• The break of its moving average and macro uncertainty hinder any significant rebound before 2026.

Bitcoin faces a critical threshold for 2025

The symbolic threshold of $93,374 divides analysts. According to some, awould be enough to paint the annual candle green. However, the crypto market remains unstable after an ATH above $125,000 in October, followed by a 30% drop in November.

Bitcoin even touchedaccording to charts, thus breaking its major technical support: the 365-day moving average. This structural break, never seen so clearly since 2023, feeds the fear of a lasting reversal.

According to analyst Nic Puckrin, bitcoin has three days to avoid a red close. If it fails, it couldthat has remained intact for over a decade. Enough to increase fear among BTC hodlers.

Macroeconomics: The Fed slows bitcoin’s momentum

The Fed rate cut plays a role in the. We refer to three successive 25 basis point cuts that temporarily revived risk appetite.

The intervention of Jerome Powell in December unfortunately cast doubt. Result: only 18.8% of crypto investors anticipate another interest rate cut in January.

This uncertainty weighs on bitcoin’s momentum. The absence of inflows could indeed prevent any. The correlation with monetary policies therefore remains strong.

Except for an express rebound, bitcoin could thus end the year below its historical standards. The market wonders: a simple bullish pause or the start of a new bearish cycle? The answer may come as early as January.

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