Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Week: The Final Countdown Before the Annual Close

All eyes are on the king of crypto. As the calendar flips to its final page, Bitcoin faces a pressure test that could define its narrative for the year ahead.

The Final Hurdle

Markets don't sleep, but they do keep score. The annual close isn't just a date—it's a psychological battleground where institutional reports get finalized and yearly charts get etched in stone. A strong finish paints a bullish picture for quarterly reviews; a weak one fuels the skeptics' fire. It's the ultimate performance review, and Bitcoin's sitting in the hot seat.

More Than Just a Number

Forget the day-traders for a second. This week is for the big players—the funds, the family offices, the institutions who treat year-end prices as gospel in their pitch decks. Where Bitcoin settles on Tuesday night will be quoted for months, becoming a benchmark for "where we ended up" and a foundation for "where we're going next." The price action now carries the weight of annualized returns and risk-adjusted slides in boardroom presentations.

The Whisper of Volatility

Thin holiday liquidity often amplifies every move. A modest buy or sell order can punch above its weight, triggering outsized swings. It's a classic setup: lower trading volume meets high-stakes sentiment, creating a potential launchpad or trapdoor. The market's looking for a direction—any catalyst could get magnified.

The Bigger Picture

Let's be real—one week doesn't undo a year. But in the world of finance, where perception often trumps reality, a headline-grabbing close matters. It shapes investor psychology, fuels media narratives, and yes, influences those bonus-driving charts fund managers love so much. A strong close sends a message of resilience; a stumble invites a chorus of "I told you so" from the traditional finance crowd who still think digital gold is just a fancy spreadsheet.

So here we are. Bitcoin stands at the threshold, with the financial world's short-term memory waiting to judge its entire year based on the next few candles. Whether it's a triumphant surge or a grudging hold, the outcome will write the first line of next chapter. The only thing predictable? The suits will take all the credit if it goes up, and blame 'speculative mania' if it goes down.

In brief

• Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $90,000, despite increased whale support.
• Options expired Friday reignite volatility, favoring a possible drop towards $80,000.
• The Bitcoin/silver ratio dropped 67%, signaling weakness against precious metals.
• Bitfinex long positions reach a peak, indicating a bullish outlook for 2026.

Bitcoin: The $90,000 Plays Hide-and-Seek

Can Bitcoin still close 2025 in the green? Already, the $90,000 level acts like a mirage. Briefly reached, it quickly gave way. Worse: this threshold fails to turn into solid support, leaving traders on edge. This Sunday, CrypNuevo set the tone: “Record levels of options expired on Friday, so I’m expecting a lot of volatility for the next few weeks.“

The analyst envisions a “drop” scenario toward $80,000 to capture liquidity, followed by a possible rebound to $100,000. Conversely, a break below $80,000 could derail BTC toward $72,000, a major resistance level turned potential support.

Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe keeps an eye on a discreet but powerful technical barrier: the 20-day moving average. This threshold, located around $89,400, could trigger a bullish reversal if the price clings to it convincingly.

The liquidation chart also indicates that Leveraged positions could cause a series of jerky movements. And in this chaos, other cryptos do not all have the luxury of hope: Ethereum stagnates, Solana wavers, and altcoins suffer a domino effect.

Crypto: Whales Swim Against the Current

As doubt invades timelines, another signal lights up analysts’ radars: Bitfinex whales quietly reload. According to GalaxyTrading, BTC longs have reached record levels since Q1 2024. BitBull confirms that Bitfinex whale long positions on BTC have nearly hit a two-year high. This signal serves as a compass.

In a cautious market, discreet accumulation by the “OG whales” acts as a bet on the future. CryptoQuant even highlights a resurgence of this low-volatility activity, emphasizing that, unlike retail-driven rallies, whale spot activity generally reflects long-term positions. 

This behavior sends a clear message: market giants see beyond the current turbulence.

And yet, the mood is not euphoric. Short-term holders (STH) continue to sell at a loss, according to Glassnode data, with realized loss volume reaching $300 million per day. CryptoVizArt summarizes the dilemma by explaining that despite a price stabilization above the market’s actual average, loss selling has not decreased significantly.

The End of a Cycle or the Beginning of Another?

With a historic peak of $126,200 in October, 2025 could have been written in Gold letters. But a drop of nearly 40% since this peak leaves a bitter taste. Some wonder: are the famous 4-year cycles outdated? Can we still hope for a repeat of the past in a market that is changing its nature?

CryptoQuant, through CryptoZeno’s analysis, provides valuable insight. Unlike previous dips where corrections often reached -70% to -85%, the current pullback remains contained. Leverage has been purged, forced sales limited, and strong hands hold firm.

Here is what CryptoZeno highlights:

From an on-chain perspective, this aligns with a market structure where forced selling has been more limited, leverage excess has been materially reduced compared to the 2021 cycle, and long-term holder supply remains relatively resilient.

Yet all this unfolds in an uncertain macro context. Precious metals, on the other hand, are breaking the ceiling. The Bitcoin/silver ratio has dropped 67% since May, and the silver price has jumped +175% in 2025, according to The Kobeissi Letter. Gold also flirts with highs.

Some Key Points to Remember

• The Bitcoin price is trading at $87,397 at the time of writing;
• Bitfinex whales hold their highest long positions in two years;
• The daily realized loss volume exceeds $300 million;
• The BTC/silver ratio has fallen to 1,104, its lowest since September 2023;
• The expiration of $27 billion in options has revived volatility.

An annual close in the red would be an unprecedented event for bitcoin in a post-halving year. Some analysts whisper that it would be a first in 14 years. The signal would be clear: a structural change is underway. Perhaps BTC will never evolve by the same rules again. For those hoping, it will take a bit more than fireworks this time.

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