Bitcoin Whales Brace for Dip Before Next Bull Run—Here’s Why

Bitcoin's biggest players are positioning for a short-term pullback—and they're betting it'll set the stage for the next major rally.

Whale wallets have been quietly accumulating stablecoin reserves while reducing spot exposure over recent weeks. On-chain data shows a notable shift toward liquidity hoarding rather than aggressive buying. It's the classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' playbook—only this time, the whales are writing the script.

Why the cautious stance?

Market sentiment has turned overly bullish too quickly. Retail FOMO often precedes a flush-out. Whales know this—they've seen the cycle repeat for over a decade. Instead of chasing prices higher, they're preparing dry powder for a potential dip below key support levels.

Technical indicators flash warning signs

RSI readings on daily charts show Bitcoin flirting with overbought territory. Exchange inflows have ticked up, suggesting some profit-taking is already underway. Funding rates remain elevated—a classic sign that leverage is building on the long side. When that unwinds, the drop can be sharp.

But here's the twist: this isn't a bearish signal.

Whale accumulation during pullbacks has historically marked the start of powerful uptrends. They're not selling to exit—they're selling to re-enter lower. It's a liquidity grab, plain and simple. The goal? Shake out weak hands and consolidate before the next leg up.

Institutional players are watching closely

Spot ETF flows have slowed, but not reversed. Macro conditions still favor hard assets over fiat—especially with central banks globally stuck between inflation and recession. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets has weakened again, reinforcing its role as a hedge.

Timing the dip

No one rings a bell at the top, but whale behavior offers clues. Watch for a spike in exchange reserves paired with stablecoin buying power hitting multi-week highs. That's usually the setup. The dip, when it comes, could be swift—5% to 15% in a matter of days. Then the bids step in.

Long-term holders aren't budging

Despite the whale maneuvering, long-term holder supply remains near all-time highs. The majority of Bitcoin hasn't moved in over a year. That's the real foundation—speculative waves crash against a bedrock of diamond hands.

What comes next?

A healthy correction would reset overextended indicators, flush excess leverage, and establish a higher low on the chart. That's the ideal launchpad for the next rally phase. Whales know it. Smart money knows it. Even your broker probably knows it—though they'll still charge you a fee to watch it happen.

Stay liquid, stay ready. The dip isn't the end—it's the reload.

In Brief

• Bitcoin stagnates around $90,701, between bullish hopes and caution from long indicators.
• Whales await a return towards $87,500 before betting on a rebound.
• Without a close above $101,500, macro signals remain fragile despite short-term optimism.
• Long-term signals show bearish probabilities, despite a macro-economically favorable context.

Bitcoin and crypto: the battle of invisible supports below $91K 

At $90,701, the Bitcoin price serves as a balance point between short-term optimism and macro caution. While some observers see bullish signals, the whales—those large influential holders—have not yet validated a sustainable recovery. They seem to anticipate a lower support test, around the Yearly Open at $87,500.

On X, Material Indicators published an analysis illustrating this struggle:

The bulls try to defend the support at the Timescape level of January 5, 2026, but the whales appear to aim for a support test closer to the annual open, before a Golden Cross forms on the daily chart to trigger the next rally. 

In other words, as long as $87,500 has not been retested, the likelihood of a sustained rebound on BTC remains uncertain. Technically, a weekly Death Cross (bearish crossover of long-term moving averages) could form—a signal traditionally interpreted as increased bearish pressure.

And yet, the weekly RSI slightly exceeds 41, a threshold some analysts watch as a potential reversal sign. But without confirmation by a weekly close above $101,500, bullish forces will struggle to prevail.

Long-term signals that temper short-term euphoria 

In crypto, excitement from intraday movements can mask structural risks. For those analyzing longer timeframes, the trend is not yet clear. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, explained this tension:

The battle for this level is ongoing right now. If it doesn’t happen in the next 24 hours, I think it will occur after a Death Cross formation on the weekly chart, around mid-month.

This tweet illustrates the tension between bullish and bearish forces. Beyond daily prices, Trend Precognition signals over 6 and 12 months show bearish movement probabilities (48 over 6 months, 42 over 12 months). This means that even if the short term looks constructive, the long-term structure remains fragile.

The crypto community knows that technical levels like the weekly RSI or the 50-week SMA are key thresholds to validate sustainable reversals. Without these confirmations, positive moves can turn into bull traps—where bullish traders get caught in a sudden reversal.

In other words, BTC may oscillate well, but only the long term truly dictates the macro cycle. The impetuous might be surprised.

Fed, macro, and illusions of a premature bull run 

Early 2026 also gives the impression of a favorable macro environment. Recent movements in traditional markets—especially the drop in bond yields and Fed rate-cut expectations—have supported risk assets, including crypto. This translated into a price recovery for bitcoin and other digital assets.

Yet, this dynamic is not linear. Even if BTC remains “up” 3% for the week, it lost 2% in 24 hours according to recent data. This oscillation shows that bullish moves are sensitive to overall market volatility.

At the same time, ethereum shows even more marked fragility than BTC. Its 3- and 6-month trend signals display high bearish probabilities—a stereotype rarely observed in historical data. This does not rule out a tactical rebound but indicates a more fragile structure.

This global context recalls a fundamental rule of the crypto industry: speculation often feeds short term, but long-term analysis wins out in the end.

4 Key Figures to Remember Today

• $90,701: current bitcoin price, reflecting a tension zone;
• $87,500: crucial support monitored by the whales;
• $101,500: 50-week SMA level to validate for a real reversal;
• 48 & 42: Trend Precognition scores for BTC over 6M and 12M (indicating possible bearish pressure).

In the crypto-sphere, predicting ATHs or ALTs is part of the game. Skeptics highlight cautious technical signals, but the most enthusiastic remain convinced that a historic bull run in 2026 is possible. Technical dips are not ends in themselves but often springboards toward remarkable rises. For the bullish, the story is not yet written.

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