Cogna (COGN3), Yduqs (YDUQ3), or Ânima (AMIN3)? JP Morgan’s Top Education Stock Pick for 2026

• Why Did JP Morgan Overhaul Its Education Sector Ratings?
• Ânima (AMIN3): The New Sector Darling
• Cogna (COGN3): A Value Play With 95% Upside
• Yduqs (YDUQ3) and Afya: The Fallen Angels
• Market Reaction: A Tale of Two Tickers
• The Big Picture: What’s Next for Education Stocks?
• FAQs: Your Burning Questions Answered

JP Morgan has shaken up its recommendations for Brazil’s education sector, upgrading Ânima (AMIN3) to "overweight" and making it their top pick, while downgrading Yduqs (YDUQ3) and Afya (AFYA). The bank’s analysts cite a shift in valuation metrics—from free cash Flow to P/E ratios—as the key driver. Here’s a deep dive into the winners, losers, and why Ânima’s 154% upside potential is turning heads.

Why Did JP Morgan Overhaul Its Education Sector Ratings?

In a January 2026 report, JP Morgan analysts Marcelo Santos and Livea Mizobata announced a major pivot: they’re now prioritizing P/E multiples over free cash FLOW (FCF) for valuing education stocks. "After years of FCF focus, we believe these companies have proven their cash conversion abilities. Earnings are simply less volatile," they noted. This methodological shift triggered upgrades for Ânima and Cogna, but spelled trouble for Yduqs and Afya.

Ânima (AMIN3): The New Sector Darling

Ânima’s stock surged 9.35% intraday after JP Morgan slapped a R$9 price target on it—a staggering 154.9% upside from yesterday’s close of R$3.43. The bank sees Ânima as the prime beneficiary of Brazil’s impending interest rate cuts, with economists forecasting a 3.5 percentage point Selic rate drop to 11.5% by December 2026. Here’s the kicker: every 1% rate cut could boost Ânima’s earnings by 8%, outperforming peers’ 1-7% sensitivity.

Cogna (COGN3): A Value Play With 95% Upside

Upgraded from "neutral" to "buy," Cogna now carries a R$6.50 target (+95.2% from current levels). JP Morgan highlights its dual growth engines: Kroton (higher education, 12% projected 2026 revenue growth) and K12 (primary/secondary education, expanding faster). Regulatory tailwinds help too—the Education Ministry’s "fast track" approval for nursing programs may cushion revenue losses during the 2-year transition to mandatory in-person classes.

Yduqs (YDUQ3) and Afya: The Fallen Angels

Yduqs got demoted to "neutral" with a lowered R$21 target (+62.8%), as JP Morgan expects just 5% 2026 revenue growth vs. Cogna’s 12%. At 7.1x 2026 P/E, they call it "expensive" compared to peers. Afya, while still a "premium" operation, saw its target cut to US$22 (+41.8%) due to limited rate-cut leverage. "We’d rather play medicine exposure via Ânima," the analysts shrugged.

Market Reaction: A Tale of Two Tickers

As of midday January 8, 2026: COGN3 led Ibovespa gainers (+5.71% to R$3.52), while YDUQ3 topped losers (-5.50% to R$12.19). ANIM3, trading outside the index, rocketed 9.35% to R$3.86. Remember, COGN3 was 2025’s best Ibovespa performer (+240%)—can lightning strike twice?

The Big Picture: What’s Next for Education Stocks?

With valuation frameworks shifting and rate cuts looming, volatility seems guaranteed. Ânima’s leverage to monetary policy makes it a high-beta play, while Cogna offers steadier growth. As for Yduqs? It might need to prove its premium multiple is justified. One thing’s clear: 2026 will separate the sector’s valedictorians from those left back in remedial class.

FAQs: Your Burning Questions Answered

Why did JP Morgan change its valuation method?

The bank believes P/E ratios now better reflect education firms’ stability, as they’ve demonstrated consistent cash conversion.

How sensitive is Ânima to interest rate changes?

Extremely—each 1% Selic cut could boost earnings by 8%, the highest sensitivity in the sector.

Is Cogna still a good dividend stock?

While JP Morgan didn’t address dividends specifically, its 12% revenue growth projection suggests strong cash flow potential.

What’s the biggest risk to these picks?

Regulatory changes—especially in nursing education—could disrupt enrollment trends. Always monitor MEC announcements.