Morgan Stanley Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin’s ’Fall Season’ Looms – Time to Cash Out?
Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley drops a bearish bombshell on crypto markets—warning Bitcoin is entering a historically weak phase.
The bank's analysts urge profit-taking now, citing seasonal trends that typically hammer BTC prices. Traders scramble as the report hits desks.
Timing the market? Good luck with that. Even the suits can't decide if this is wisdom or just another institutional attempt to shake out retail holders.
Morgan Stanley Strategist Says Bitcoin Entering ‘Fall Season,’ Time to Take Profits
Speaking on the crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, Denny Galindo, investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said Bitcoin’s historical performance follows a repeating “three-up, one-down” pattern.
“We are in the fall season right now,” Galindo explained. “Fall is the time for harvest — it’s when you want to take your gains. The question is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.”
The comments come as Bitcoin’s price momentum softens.
On Nov. 5, bitcoin fell below $99,000, breaking under its 365-day moving average, a key technical support level used by traders to gauge long-term sentiment.
CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno noted that the drop signaled a shift in market tone, while Bitrue analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima called it “a confirmation of a technical bear market.”
The significance of Bitcoin losing the 365-day MA:
It was the final confirmation to the start of the 2022 bear market.
The price needs to cross back above it quickly. pic.twitter.com/9ChB28Zl5g
Adding to the cautious sentiment, crypto market maker Wintermute said market liquidity has stalled, with inflows from stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and digital asset treasuries plateauing.
The firm noted that these three components have been the primary drivers of crypto market depth since early 2025, but recent months have shown declining activity.
Despite near-term headwinds, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow.
Michael Cyprys, head of US brokers, asset managers, and exchanges at Morgan Stanley Research, said that large investors increasingly view Bitcoin as “digital gold,” a potential hedge against inflation and currency debasement.
“Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as a macro hedge,” Cyprys said, adding that ETFs have made access easier.
However, he noted that institutional allocations MOVE slowly due to regulatory processes and long-term mandates.
According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold more than $137 billion in total assets, with Ether ETFs accounting for an additional $22.4 billion.
Analysts say this growing institutional exposure could temper volatility even as the market enters its cyclical slowdown.
Bitcoin Stuck Between $106K–$116K as Long-Term Holders Dump and Volatility Fades
Bitcoin’s typical November rally looks increasingly unlikely this year, as the market faces persistent selling pressure from long-term holders and fading institutional demand.
The asset has been locked in a narrow range between $106,000 and $116,000 for two weeks following October’s sharp sell-off, signaling investor hesitation and a broader consolidation phase.
Bitfinex’s latest market report shows that long-term holders have ramped up distribution to 104,000 BTC per month, the most aggressive selling since mid-July.
Analysts warn that unless ETF inflows or new spot demand pick up, Bitcoin may remain range-bound, with downside risk toward $106,000 or even $100,000.
