Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin’s ’10-Year Grind Up’ Promises Steady Returns for Patient Investors
Forget the moon. The real money might be in the slow climb.
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer just mapped a decade-long trajectory for Bitcoin—calling it a 'grind up' that could deliver consistent gains for those willing to hold. It's a forecast that sidesteps the usual crypto hype cycle, focusing instead on long-term structural adoption.
The Slow-Burn Thesis
The argument cuts through the noise of daily price swings. Institutional frameworks are solidifying. Regulatory clarity—though painfully slow—inches forward. Each development, however mundane, adds another brick to the foundation. This isn't about a viral tweet; it's about the plumbing of finance getting a digital upgrade.
Steady Returns vs. Speculative Frenzy
This 'grind' narrative directly challenges the get-rich-quick mentality. It suggests the real wealth transfer won't happen in a single parabolic spike, but through a series of higher lows and resilient recoveries. Volatility doesn't disappear; it just becomes a feature for accumulating, not a bug that triggers panic.
It’s the kind of boring, long-term outlook that makes hedge fund managers yawn and retail traders scroll past—which, in the world of finance, is often the best signal you’ve got.
The Patient Investor's Play
So what's the play? The strategy shifts from timing the market to time in the market. It means looking past the quarterly earnings circus and the Fed's next mood swing. It requires a belief that the digitization of value is a multi-chapter story, and we're still in the early pages.
The '10-year grind up' isn't a guaranteed prophecy. But as a framework, it offers something rare in crypto: a dose of patience. In a market addicted to adrenaline, that might be the most radical prediction of all.
Bitwise CIO Sticks to Bullish 2026 Bitcoin Outlook
Hougan reaffirmed his view that 2026 will be a positive year for Bitcoin, maintaining a forecast he first shared in July, months before the asset surged to a new all-time high of $125,100 in October.
“I think next year will be up,” he said, despite growing debate over whether the current market cycle has already peaked.
That debate intensified after Bitcoin pulled back sharply from its October highs. The asset is trading around $87,800 at the time of publication, down about 3.8% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
ReserveOne chief investment officer Sebastian Beau said the drop has revived questions about whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle remains intact.
“All-time highs were 125,000… we are bordering on $87,000 today, down 30% relatively quickly,” Beau said, calling the MOVE painful for investors.
Some market participants note that the timing of Bitcoin’s October peak closely resembles past cycle tops, raising the possibility that 2026 could be a down year.
Hougan acknowledged that retail behavior has played a role in the recent weakness, arguing that “fast-moving” retail investors rotated out late in the year in anticipation of a cycle-driven downturn.
Still, Hougan believes Bitcoin’s downside has been cushioned by what he described as “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying.”
Unlike previous cycles that saw drawdowns of 60% or more, Bitcoin’s current pullback has been comparatively shallow, a sign that long-term capital is providing support.
Not all analysts share Hougan’s optimism. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that bitcoin could slide to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, highlighting ongoing risks tied to macro conditions and market structure.
Bitwise CIO Sticks to Bullish 2026 Bitcoin Outlook
Hougan also downplayed expectations that US politics will drive the next leg higher. While Bitcoin rallied to fresh highs earlier in 2025 following Donald Trump’s inauguration, Hougan said the administration is unlikely to unlock significant new upside.
Looking ahead to 2026, the industry remains divided. Fidelity’s director of global macro research, Jurrien Timmer, has suggested 2026 could be a pause year, with prices potentially sliding toward $65,000.
Others remain more optimistic. Strategy CEO Phong Le has argued that Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals held up throughout 2025 despite weaker prices, while Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said earlier this year that he expects 2026 to be an “up year” for the asset.
According to Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, Bitcoin’s recent price action underscores the market’s sensitivity to monetary policy expectations rather than headline economic data.
