Bitcoin’s Final Push: Just 6.24% Stands Between It and a Green 2025
It's the final countdown. With the year's last trading sessions ticking away, Bitcoin faces a single, clear hurdle to avoid ending 2025 in the red.
The Magic Number
Forget complex technical analysis. The target is stark: a 6.24% rally. That's the precise climb needed from its current perch to secure a positive annual close. It's not about moonshots or new all-time highs—it's a straightforward sprint to the finish line.
Market Mechanics in Overdrive
Watch the order books thin and volatility spike as the calendar flips. This period amplifies every buy and sell order, turning minor flows into major price moves. The so-called 'year-end rebalancing' from traditional funds—often just a fancy term for panic-driven window dressing—adds unpredictable fuel to the fire.
The Stakes at the Bell
A green yearly candle isn't just a pretty chart. It's a psychological victory, a data point for the 'store of value' narrative, and a rebuttal to the perennial naysayers. A red close, however, feeds the narrative of a stagnant asset, giving ammunition to every skeptic who still thinks it's a solution in search of a problem (usually right before they quietly allocate 1% of their portfolio to it).
The stage is set. The number is clear. All that's left is to see if the market has one more surge left in the tank before the clock runs out.
Bitcoin plummets 30% from October peak
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $125,000 in October, just days before a historic market crash put a dent in Bitcoin’s rally and caused a decline in crypto prices across the board.
Since hitting its all-time high, BTC price has plunged by roughly 30% and found a local bottom NEAR $80,000 in November. That has led analysts to analyze whether Bitcoin’s bull rally is a thing of the past and whether a new bear market has begun.
Meanwhile, 2025 volatility metrics indicate elevated moves and declining speculative interest. Bitcoin trading analysts note that trading is currently below crucial longer-term technical levels, such as the 365-day moving average, a MOVE that many analysts view as a signal of weakening structural price support.
Market analysts are divided on whether a recovery will occur or if the decline will persist into the new year, often focusing on macroeconomic and liquidity factors affecting the leading cryptocurrency’s price.
Bitcoin has been trading well under its 365-day moving average, a critical support level, since November, breaking the structural uptrend that began two years back.
Fed’s rate cuts lift crypto sentiment
Lower interest rates are positive price catalysts for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies, which tend to rally with fresh liquidity injections.
In 2025, the Federal Reserve issued three 25-basis-point (BPS) interest rate cuts, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided mixed forward guidance at the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December meeting.
“There is no risk-free path for policy,” Powell said, casting doubt about another interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in January.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group’s FedWatch tool, just 18.8% of investors expect an interest rate cut in January.
With just a few trading days remaining in 2025, the spotlight is on whether Bitcoin’s price can generate a last‑minute rally. A successful ~6.24% increase could allow BTC to buck the broader trend and close the year positively, preserving a psychological and technical milestone for market participants.
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