Bank of America CEO Predicts Trump Will Ease Trade Tensions in 2026
Wall Street's crystal ball just got a major update—and it's flashing political green lights for 2026.
The Forecast from the Corner Office
Forget the analysts. The real market-moving predictions are coming from the C-suite. The latest comes from one of the world's largest financial institutions, where leadership is placing a billion-dollar bet on a geopolitical thaw.
They're calling for a significant de-escalation in global trade friction. The timeline? The year 2026. The catalyst? A familiar figure re-entering the White House. It's a forecast that bypasses current headlines to map the financial landscape two years out.
Why This Isn't Just Another Headline
This isn't vague speculation. It's a calculated risk assessment from an institution that manages more capital than some countries' GDPs. When a bank of this size shifts its long-term outlook, capital allocation follows. Think supply chains, tariffs, and cross-border investment—all poised for a potential reset.
The message to markets is clear: prepare for volatility now, but plan for stability later. It's the ultimate 'buy the rumor' play, with the rumor being a return to predictable, deal-focused geopolitics. Of course, in finance, a prediction from a CEO is often just a sophisticated way of talking their own book—but when the book is that big, everyone listens.
The bottom line? The money is betting on a quieter world. Whether that's visionary leadership or just wishful thinking from folks tired of hedging currency risk remains to be seen.
Moynihan’s belief regarding Trump’s tariff policies sparks hope in the market
As Trump’s tariff policies continue to create tension in the markets, Moynihan released a statement attempting to explain the matter. In the statement, Bank of America’s CEO pointed out that, “Going from a 10% rate across the board to 15% for most countries is not a huge change.” Based on his argument, this situation demonstrated that the tension in the market is beginning to reduce.
Regarding the progress of the tariff imposition, reports dated April mentioned that the US president began by implementing an initial tariff rate of about 10% on all goods imported to the US. In July, TRUMP announced the introduction of several new tariffs. These tariffs were anticipated to increase the average rate to around 15.2%, applicable to the country’s key trading partners, once they were imposed as scheduled.
In the meantime, data from a reliable source indicated that the average tariff rate in the US increased from 2% to 14% after Trump took office.
As the situation becomes intense, Moynihan admitted that China raises a different question, similar to North American trading partners, because a review of the US-Mexico-Canada agreement is set to take place in 2026. Nonetheless, even with this assertion, the CEO still insists that one can tell how things are generally progressing.
Moynihan also claimed that small businesses faced significant challenges in the second quarter of the year, which were largely attributed to tariff hikes and growing uncertainties regarding trade policies.
After some time, these businesses experienced relief when rates began to drop significantly. In Moynihan’s analysis, he declared that what small businesses find challenging at the moment is not tariffs, but rather locating employees. He made these remarks at a time when specific immigration policies adopted by the Trump administration had not yet completely taken effect.
The fate of Trump’s tariff policies ignites debates among individuals
Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC) in the Trump administration, earlier asserted that the administration is confident that the US Supreme Court will make a decision that favors them on matters related to the legality of the tariffs Trump implemented.
Analysts weighed in on the situation. They argued that if, by any chance, the court rules against the tariffs, then it could eliminate several of them and mandate the government to compensate those affected by up to $100 billion. Following this statement, Hassett noted that such an incident could lead to serious administrative issues.
He also argued that at this point, he agreed that the concept of $2,000 tariff rebate checks is highly likely. Notably, this idea was earlier proposed by the US president. Concerning this sudden decision, Hassett explained that, “Back in summer, I wasn’t sure if there was room for such a check, but now I believe there is.” With this in mind, the US official anticipated that Trump WOULD submit a formal proposal to Congress next year.
Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.
