Grayscale’s Bold Prediction: Bipartisan U.S. Crypto Framework to Ignite Institutional Adoption by 2026
The regulatory dam is about to break.
Grayscale, the digital asset management giant, is calling its shot. Forget the regulatory limbo—the firm forecasts a landmark, bipartisan crypto framework will emerge from Washington, setting the stage for a tidal wave of institutional capital to finally flood the market. The target? 2026.
From Gray Area to Green Light
For years, institutional players have circled the crypto space with caution, their checkbooks held back by a patchwork of state rules and federal uncertainty. Grayscale's analysis suggests that political gridlock is cracking. The pressure from voters, innovators, and yes, lobbyists, is forging a rare consensus. The result won't be a light-touch memo; it's expected to be a comprehensive rulebook that defines digital assets, clarifies custody, and outlines compliance—giving Wall Street the clarity it craves.
The Institutional Floodgates
This isn't about a few hedge funds dabbling in Bitcoin. A clear federal framework acts as a starting pistol for pension funds, endowments, and major asset managers to allocate at scale. It transforms crypto from a speculative sideshow into a legitimate, allocatable asset class. Portfolio managers get the legal cover to build positions, and custodians get the certainty to hold the keys. The infrastructure—from prime brokerage to insurance—snaps into place almost overnight.
The 2026 Countdown
Mark the calendar. Grayscale's 2026 timeline isn't arbitrary. It accounts for the slog of legislative process, committee markups, and the inevitable last-minute lobbying frenzy from traditional finance giants suddenly playing defense. The prediction implies that the foundational work is happening now, in backrooms and draft bills, setting the stage for a decisive move in the next congressional session. The market won't wait for the ink to dry—anticipation alone will fuel strategic positioning.
The coming framework won't please every crypto purist; expect compromises that make TradFi veterans comfortable—another layer of paperwork, naturally. But for the big money, that's a feature, not a bug. It's the permission slip they've been waiting for. When it arrives, the institutional adoption long promised will shift from theory to tangible, market-moving reality. The only question left is who's built the boats to ride the wave.
Grayscale says quantum computing poses no real risk to crypto so far
Quantum computing risks remain legitimate from the asset manager’s perspective. Grayscale’s analysts believe quantum risks are still overstated heading into 2026, with no real or sufficiently powerful quantum computer having been developed that could undermine the current cryptographic encryption standards.
Grayscale analysts believe that quantum computing has not yet developed a material influence on price action across the crypto landscape. So far, based on a recent Cryptopolitan report, the major quantum computing achievement is IBM’s 12-qubit system, which was achieved in October this year. Based on the ‘Cats: Entanglement in 120 Qubits and Beyond’, IBM researchers outlined that they were able to entangle 120 quantum bits into a single coherent system. This represented the largest and most stable multipartite quantum state ever recorded.
The crypto asset manager analysts view one of these debates as the key driver shaping crypto markets in the NEAR term, and another as shaping the longer-term crypto landscape. Based on Grayscale’s 2026 outlook report, a comprehensive set of crypto regulations harmonized with traditional rules could influence crypto adoption across the U.S. and other major economies worldwide. Grayscale’s analysts forecast that large institutions, including banks and hedge funds, may become more comfortable handling digital assets and their holding abilities.
Regulations across the crypto landscape could offer a more balanced and stable liquidity across the crypto market as opposed to the retail speculative nature across the market. The 2026 outlook noted that regulated assets will encourage regulated institutions to transact directly with blockchains. The report further argued that this will mark only the beginning of a more institutional era for crypto markets.
Grayscale urges blockchains to prepare for a post-quantum crypto market
Grayscale analysis revealed, however, that quantum computing will prompt most blockchains and the broader digital economy to adapt to a post-quantum cryptocurrency, utilizing more sophisticated quantum cryptographic standards. The firm believes that, although the risks are distant for now, they are legitimate and require blockchain preparation.
The asset manager projects that more asset classes will emerge next year via exchange-traded funds. The report estimated that approximately $87 billion was raised in 2025 as ETF proceeds globally since its launch in 2024. As of now, based on SoSoValue, U.S. spot ETFs hold roughly $113 billion in BTC, $17 billion in ETH, and $1.24 billion in XRP. The rest of the spot ETFs in the U.S. include SOL, DOGE, and LINK, with a combined net assets of $1 billion, and many more have been released recently. Grayscale manages $18.4 billion and $4.74 billion across BTC and ETH spot ETFs.
Grayscale’s 2026 crypto market outlook outlined ten crypto investing themes for 2026, which included the Dollar Dibasement Risk expected to drive crypto adoption. Grayscale analysts expect the risk of debasement, alongside high public debt and inflation risks, to influence demand for crypto assets and drive prices to new all-time highs.
The GENIUS Act, which paved the way for stablecoins in 2025, is expected to drive growth in 2026 with the passage of the bipartisan crypto asset framework. The report reiterated that quantum computing risks and digital asset treasuries (DATs) do not pose a real danger to crypto markets in 2026 despite their media attention.
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