December Stagnation: As Exchange Volumes Stall, Smart Money Pivots to Stocks & Metals—Here’s What’s Next

Forget the moon—traders are parking their rockets. December's crypto exchange volumes hit a wall, signaling a classic risk-off rotation. The capital isn't vanishing; it's migrating.

The Great Rotation

While digital asset markets entered a seasonal lull, traditional havens flashed green. Equities and precious metals soaked up the liquidity, a move that screams portfolio rebalancing 101. It's the oldest play in the book: when uncertainty bites, flee to perceived stability. Even in a digital age, gold's glitter still attracts.

Predictions in a Vacuum

With concrete data thin, the prediction industry shifts into overdrive. Analysts are left extrapolating from whispers and derivatives flows—a perfect environment for narratives to outpace fundamentals. Remember, a forecast is often just a confession of what the forecaster already holds.

The cynical take? This is less a grand exodus and more a tactical pause—the financial equivalent of holding your breath to see if the regulatory helium balloon floats or pops. The real volume will return when the suits on traditional trading floors start feeling FOMO again.

Spot exchange volume diminished

Spot exchange volume diminished after a brief initial spike following the October 11 liquidation. Spot volumes did not offset the shrinking derivative market, as both retail and whales disengaged in the last month of 2025. 

For the past year, January and October were the best months for crypto activity, coinciding with price rallies and overall enthusiasm. Exchange volume spikes coincide with positive crypto sentiment, based on the crypto fear and greed index. 

For the past month, market sentiment shifted between fear and extreme fear, coinciding with a reluctance to trade. 

DEX volumes end the year with gains

Decentralized exchanges remained robust in 2025, with net gains compared to January. Decentralized trading evolved based on the expansion of wallet apps. For most of 2025, DEX made up between 17% and 21% of centralized market activity. 

DEX volumes rose at the end of the year, though still below their peak in October. The growth came from increased DeFi usage, lending, as well as the influence of the solana ecosystem. 

Over the course of 2025, PancakeSwap emerged as one of the most active DEXs. The market and its multi-chain representation passed Uniswap to become the leader in DEX volumes. 

DEX volumes were also more reactive to trends and incentives, with record activity on Aerodrome in September. Unlike centralized markets, DEXs remained more robust despite the signs of a bear market, allowing for riskier trades with higher upside. 

Overall activity on DEXs also replaced an all-out altcoin season, with many smaller assets producing short-term rallies. Centralized markets rarely offered similar pumps, and in fact mostly led to losses for altcoins and tokens. 

Activity on DEXs also reflected the recent growth in stablecoin usage, with easier on-chain settlement and arbitrage potential.

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