Elon Musk’s Optimus Robot: How Close Are We to a Functional Humanoid Workforce?

From Tesla's assembly lines to your living room—Elon Musk's Optimus robot promises to redefine automation. But is the timeline more fantasy than forecast?

The Reality Check

Musk's demonstrations show a bipedal machine performing simple tasks—walking, sorting objects, waving. The hardware exists. The software, however, remains the bottleneck. Real-world environments are chaotic; a factory floor isn't a controlled demo stage.

Production vs. Prototype

Building one robot is a feat of engineering. Manufacturing thousands, reliably and affordably, is a supply-chain nightmare. Tesla's expertise in electric vehicles gives Optimus a leg up on battery and motor tech, but dexterous manipulation and AI decision-making lag behind the physical shell.

The Financial Stakes

Every delayed robot rollout burns capital—investor patience wears thinner than a semiconductor wafer. The project bets big on scaling where others have stumbled, a gamble that could either mint a new industry or join the graveyard of overhyped tech. Remember: a bullish demo day doesn't pay the bills.

So, how close is 'close'? The path from lab to global deployment is littered with unseen hurdles. Optimus moves, but the finish line keeps shifting.

Tesla engineers struggle to build working bots as Elon goes all in

The project started in a kitchenette. Elon’s engineers had no formal lab space at first. Later, they got shoved into a basement, then a parking lot. The company couldn’t even find proper components .Tesla had to make its own actuators, which power the bot’s limbs, from scratch.

Meanwhile, inside the lab, the nearly six-foot-tall robot spends most of its time sorting Legos, folding laundry, or learning how to use a drill. That’s the current level. That’s what Tesla has after years of HYPE and billions in cash.

Some of Elon’s own people have doubts. Former Tesla engineers said they didn’t think the bot was worth putting in factories. One said other bots, built specifically for industrial tasks, still work better.

In May, Tesla released a clip showing Optimus taking orders like “clean up crumbs” or “vacuum this area.” But those actions were learned directly from human video demonstrations, not from actual AI intelligence.

Back in October 2024, Elon staged a Hollywood event at Warner Bros. in Burbank, California. Under a disco ball, five Optimus bots performed a dance routine to Haddaway’s “What Is Love.” Others served drinks in cowboy hats and bow ties.

But behind the scenes, the show was run by engineers in VR headsets and bodysuits, teleoperating every move. Each robot needed a small crew: one to control it, one to monitor it, others standing close in case it tipped over or got stuck.

Tesla had originally planned to roll out Optimus into its own factories by the end of the year. That’s no longer happening. The company is now working on the third version of the robot, and there’s no set delivery date. In the meantime, the only thing the bots do inside Tesla is walk around and learn how not to bump into people.

Robot dreams get bigger while Tesla’s car sales shrink

Elon’s whole pitch depends on turning these bots into the next big thing. That comes as Tesla’s car business is slipping fast. In Q4 of 2025, sales dropped 16%, and for the year, Tesla fell 9% overall.

That put the company behind China’s BYD in total sales. Tesla’s stock had been falling too, until investors started betting on Elon’s pivot to robotaxis and humanoid bots.

Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley compared Tesla’s journey to Amazon’s.“The car is to Tesla what the book was to Amazon,” he said. In other words, cars were just the beginning. But even the biggest Tesla bulls aren’t all-in.

ARK Invest, which believes Tesla stock could hit $2,600 from around $400, completely left Optimus out of its models for 2029. Tasha Keeney from ARK said, “We believe initial versions of the robot will likely have a limited set of performable tasks.”

Other companies are catching up fast. Silicon Valley startups like Figure and 1X, as well as Boston Dynamics from Hyundai and several Chinese firms, are also chasing the same robot market. Some are already selling bots that can fold clothes or help build cars. And some have given up on legs altogether.

Rivals ditch legs while Elon promises robots in every home

Elon still insists humanoids are better. But Evan Beard, CEO of Standard Bots, said wheels are smarter. “With a humanoid, if you cut the power, it’s inherently unstable so it can fall on someone,” he said. Beard’s bots roll instead of walk. He says they’re easier to control, safer to work around, and don’t tip over when turned off.

That’s not stopping Elon. In Tesla’s marketing clips, Optimus is shown watering plants, unpacking groceries, and doing other household chores while its owners chill with family. He’s already trying to sell the robot as a personal butler.

Back in November, he said, “Who wouldn’t want their own personal C-3PO/R2-D2? This is why I say humanoid robots will be the biggest product ever. Because everyone is gonna want one, or more than one.”

Ken Goldberg from UC Berkeley isn’t convinced. “Getting these robots to do something useful is the problem,” he said. “Even a child could clear a dinner table.” Goldberg said Tesla still hasn’t solved dexterity, sensitivity, or control, and without those, the robots remain a long way from doing anything helpful.

Morgan Stanley’s Jonas thinks humanoids could generate $7.5 trillion annually by 2050. Tesla’s current revenue is $98 billion, so even a slice of that pie WOULD be massive. But so far, Optimus is barely walking, still learning from humans, and still years away from replacing even a part-time cleaner.