Mercado Bitcoin’s Bold 2026 Forecast: Bitcoin Price Set to Double
Brazil's crypto giant sees a bull run that would make traditional finance blush.
Mercado Bitcoin, Latin America's largest cryptocurrency exchange, just dropped a prediction that cuts through the market's usual noise. They're calling for bitcoin's price to double by 2026. That's not a timid whisper of growth—it's a full-throated roar.
The Logic Behind the Leap
Forget vague promises of 'digital gold.' This forecast hinges on tangible adoption drivers. Think institutional inflows finally moving beyond pilot programs, regulatory clarity solidifying in key markets, and the next halving event tightening supply. It's a recipe for scarcity meeting demand.
A Nod to the Cynics
Sure, Wall Street veterans might scoff, muttering about tulip mania between sips of overpriced coffee. But here's the thing: the old guard's skepticism has consistently been a lagging indicator in this space. While they debate risk models, the network grows.
The prediction isn't just a number—it's a stake in the ground for where decentralized finance is headed. It bypasses short-term volatility to focus on the structural shift. If Mercado Bitcoin is right, the coming years won't just be about price; they'll be about proving a point.
Mercado Bitcoin projects significant growth in the crypto industry this year
The São Paulo-based cryptocurrency exchange highlighted that significant developments in the crypto industry will occur in stablecoins, ETFs, Altcoins, AI-powered trading activities, and tokenization. According to the report, the exchange anticipates substantial growth for bitcoin in 2026. It highlighted that BTC’s market capitalization will more than double by the end of 2026, to meet 14% of gold’s total market capitalization.
The prediction was derived from a valuation methodology developed in collaboration with researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). The report noted that the valuation model capitalizes on the Total Addressable Market (TAM) approach, among other methods, to estimate Bitcoin’s theoretical value, using gold as the primary benchmark instead of relying on traditional cash Flow models.
According to the report, Bitcoin is primarily viewed as a store of value, similar to gold. However, the digital asset has more advantages compared to gold, which faces logistical challenges and storage hurdles. The report identified a growing trend among institutions that now view Bitcoin as a better store of value compared to gold, due to its characteristics as a borderless and self-custodial asset. Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. alone have $116.86 billion in net assets under management, equivalent to 6.48% of the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization.
The report also outlined significant growth in the stablecoin infrastructure. The exchange predicted that the market capitalization of this sector will reach $500 billion by the end of the year. According to CoinGecko, a cryptocurrency data aggregator, stablecoins have a combined market capitalization of $311.674 billion as of the time of this publication.
The Brazilian exchange emphasized that stablecoins play a crucial role as a source of liquidity for the sector, evolving from trading tools into payment instruments across countries and sectors. The exchange cited the stablecoin growth in 2025, which increased nearly 50% year-over-year. The report attributed the growth to regulatory developments that have provided clarity to stablecoin issuance and usage. Cryptopolitan reported in June last year that the U.S. passed the GENIUS Act, which became the first-ever U.S. law to regulate stablecoin issuers.
XRP and Solana ETFs will account for 80% of inflows in Altcoin ETFs
MB projected that Altcoin ETFs will stand out in 2026. The exchange flagged altcoin funds tied to XRP, Chainlink, and solana as top ETF altcoins that have been attracting institutional capital since their debut.
Data from SosoValue, an ETF tracking website, shows that XRP ETFs now have $1.47 billion in net assets under management, which is equivalent to 1.16% of the total XRP market cap. The data also shows that these funds have witnessed consistent inflows since November 14 and have only witnessed negative flows on January 7.
Solana ETFs also crossed the $1 billion mark in net assets under management and now hold 1.43% of SOL’s total market cap. The exchange’s report estimates that altcoin ETFs will grow to $10 billion by the end of the year and projects that Solana and XRP will account for 80% of the total inflows.
The exchange’s report identified tokenization of real-world assets as a significant sector and estimated its growth will surpass $54 billion, increasing by 200%. MB researchers believe the sector has attracted institutional interest, with major firms such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton launching their own tokenized funds.
In the report, MB also projected that the prediction market will expand by more than 25X, with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket leading the pack. The forecast indicates that capital influx in these markets may reach $20 billion by year-end. MB also expects blockchain-powered AI agents to make significant contributions to the development of crypto ecosystems.
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