Ethereum’s Bearish Social Sentiment Echoes Pre-2025 Rally Levels — A Contrarian Signal?

Social sentiment around Ethereum has plunged to depths not seen since the weeks before its historic 2025 surge. The crowd is fearful, skeptical, and loudly bearish. Sound familiar?

The Setup Before the Storm

Online chatter paints a bleak picture—a cacophony of doubt and dismissal that mirrors the exact emotional landscape preceding the last major leg up. It's the classic market narrative: widespread pessimism often lays the groundwork for the most violent rallies. The data doesn't lie; the numbers are flashing that same eerie signal.

Why This Time Isn't Different

Markets are psychological battlegrounds. When consensus tilts overwhelmingly to one side, the smart money starts positioning for the inevitable swing back. This isn't about fundamentals or protocol upgrades; it's about the raw, often irrational, human sentiment that drives price discovery. The herd is stampeding in one direction—history suggests that's precisely when you should look the other way.

A Punchy Close & A Cynical Jab

So, while the Twitterati writes obituaries and Reddit declares the bull run dead, the charts whisper a different story. Remember, in crypto, the loudest voices are usually the poorest guides—most are too busy posting charts to actually make money from them.

Quinlivan says Ethereum is now recognized as the second top cryptocurrency

In late August last year, Ether returned to its 2021 record high of $4,878, marking an almost 70% increase from its low of $1,472 on April 9, according to CoinMarketCap. Quinlivan noted that Ether’s price surged right when many traders were beginning to dismiss the token.

Currently, Ether has retreated 36% from its August peak, trading at $3,089, after a $19 billion crypto sell-off on October 10 caused a market-wide downtrend. Despite the significant drop in just a few months, investors aren’t as doubtful about Ethereum’s upside as they were at the start of 2025.

He remarked, “I wouldn’t say that is happening now. Ethereum is kind of back to being an expected number two market cap for a lot of people.” Similarly, Coinbase Asset Management president Anthony Bassili also previously told reporters he’s pleased to see Ethereum regain its proper ranking. He explained that there is now a broad consensus among investors that a first portfolio should start with Bitcoin, then include Ethereum.

Traders believe Ethereum could surpass $5000 in 2026

Quinlivan remains hopeful, stating that the Ethereum network is expected to grow sharply in the coming months, particularly with an increase in staking demand. It seems he isn’t the only one who’s optimistic — on Kalshi, traders assign a 59% chance that Ethereum will exceed $4,250 in 2026, and 49% believe it could surpass $4,500.

Additionally, crypto-focused platform Polymarket is also wagering on prices far above current levels, with over 40% of traders betting Ethereum will hit $5,000 in 2026 and 22% predicting it will exceed $6,000. While prices of $7,500, $8,000, and $10,000 are still considered long shots, traders are still placing bets on them. About 7% of traders are betting on a price over $10,000.

The Ethereum Foundation also said at the end of the year that the Ethereum network cemented its role as the secure backbone of our digital civilization, consolidating its fundamentals for 2026.

Crypto market sentiment is down to “Fear” levels

Overall, the crypto market sentiment is on a downturn, oscillating between “Fear” and “Extreme Fear” since early November. On Sunday, the Index posted 29, indicating “Fear.”

Investors nonetheless still prefer bitcoin over other cryptocurrencies, with the Altcoin Season Index scoring BTC sentiment at 34 out of 100. But judging from the 90-day action of the top 100 altcoins versus Bitcoin, the index flipped between “Bitcoin Season” and “Altcoin Season” measures. Early in the year, however, some analysts have already cautioned traders to expect a downturn for Bitcoin. 

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, warned that the biggest crypto asset may remain in a consolidation phase through the first quarter of 2026. Investment in Bitcoin, he said, had slowed as investors turned their attention to equities and metals, such as gold and silver. Veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity macro research director Jurrien Timmer also suggested Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000–$65,000 range this year.

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