Bitcoin Priced in Gold Plunges to Two-Year Lows: A Golden Opportunity or Warning Sign?

Bitcoin just hit a two-year low against gold. Not in dollars—in the ancient, shiny stuff. Forget the dollar index; the real test is how the digital pioneer stacks up against humanity's oldest store of value.

The Golden Ratio Cracks

When priced in ounces of gold, Bitcoin's valuation has slumped to levels not seen since early 2024. It's a stark divergence from the mainstream dollar narrative, revealing a subtler shift in the asset hierarchy. Gold isn't just sitting pretty—it's outperforming the crypto king on its own turf.

Decoding the Signal

Is this a simple risk-off move, with capital fleeing to the ultimate safe haven? Or does it hint at a deeper recalibration? Some see it as a healthy shake-out, a chance to buy the 'digital gold' narrative at a discount against the original. Others spot a worrying crack in the foundational thesis. After all, if Bitcoin can't hold its ground against a metal dug from the ground, what does that say about its monetary premium?

History Doesn't Repeat, But It Often Rhymes

Past cycles show these cross-asset ratios can be leading indicators, often bottoming before a major reversal in dollar terms. The current dip might just be setting the stage for the next explosive leg up. Or it could be a sign that the 'store of value' crowd is getting a brutal lesson in relativity—courtesy of a metal that doesn't need software updates or network upgrades.

One cynical take for the road: Wall Street loves a complex narrative it can sell, and nothing sells like a crisis in confidence masked as a sophisticated cross-asset play. Maybe the real story isn't Bitcoin failing gold, but both of them quietly judging the entire fiat system from the sidelines.

Bitcoin priced in gold hits two-year lows

Karel Mercx wrote in September of last year that if gold rises above $ 4,000 and Silver above $50, while BTC is below $ 100,000, a major crash is likely. Mercx said the BTC 4-year price cycle narrative is dead. He has now confirmed that gold emerged as the preferred choice for investors in the debasement trade at the start of 2026, as markets reacted to the U.S. action against Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The market reaction has pushed gold and Silver to new ATHs as BTC lags 20% below its ATH.

According to Mercx, the narrative that Bitcoin is the alternative destination for investors seeking a hedge against inflation and fiat currency dilution has been broken. Capital flows are pointing toward gold and silver amid the current market reaction to the opened investigations into Fed Chair Powell. According to the specialist, investors are choosing the original hard money over the digital experiment.

Contrary to Mercx’s opinion, James Lavish, a hedge fund manager and macroeconomic expert, stated that the crypto trend remains bullish in the long term, despite short-term volatility. He believes Bitcoin’s long-term curve has just begun, especially for institutional investors. Lavish traced his remarks from the 1971 era when the U.S. left the gold standard. He noted that the USD supply exploded, creating a structural inflation problem, and that the U.S. government now faces huge debts. Lavish noted that the country’s only solution is to debase its currency over time, setting the stage for Bitcoin to shine. 

A crypto trader and host of New Era Finance, Michael Van de Poppe, echoed Mercx’s claims, acknowledging that time may be running out for the BTC market to rebound. He suggested that time is running out for a breakout, or crypto markets will start to tumble, confirming the bearish divergence. 

Crypto execs say Bitcoin 4-year cycle is dead

Benjamin Cowen, a crypto trader and CEO of Into The Cryptoverse (ITC), highlighted S&P 500 performance versus gold as the most important factor to note at the moment. Cowen argued that if the SPX breaks down against gold, the current market dynamics will change completely.

The sentiment that BTC’s 4-year price cycle is nearing its end has been echoed across the industry. Simon Dixon, founder and CEO of Bnk To The Future, revealed on X that the BTC 4-year cycle is dead, noting that 2026 WOULD form a new era. 

According to Cipher X, the 4-year cycle was never a law of nature, but rather a liquidity pattern with different macroeconomic conditions, different participants, and varying constraints. It highlighted that the assumption that timing stays forever broke, and not BTC. 

BTC began the year at $87,500 before rebounding above $90,000. At the time of publication, the token was up 2% on the monthly chart, trading at $92,031. Gold was down 0.2% on the daily chart, trading at $4596, while silver was trading at $85 per ounce.

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