VanEck Executives Split on Bitcoin Outlook as Analysts Project Risk-On Surge for Q1 2026
Internal divisions at a major asset manager highlight the high-stakes debate over crypto's trajectory.
The Great Divide
VanEck's leadership isn't singing from the same hymn sheet. While some executives are doubling down on Bitcoin's long-term store-of-value thesis, others are sounding the alarm on near-term volatility. This internal split mirrors the broader market's schizophrenia as institutional adoption collides with macroeconomic uncertainty.
Analysts Flip the Script for Q1
Forget the caution of 2025. The consensus is pivoting hard toward a 'risk-on' tone for the first quarter of 2026. The projected shift suggests a flood of capital is looking for a home—and digital assets are back on the menu. It's the classic Wall Street cycle: fear, followed by greed, followed by commissions.
Bitcoin in the Crosshairs
As the bellwether, BTC finds itself at the center of the storm. Will it act as the high-beta risk asset analysts anticipate, or will it reaffirm its 'digital gold' narrative and decouple? The coming months will test which narrative holds weight. Either way, the volatility promises to be a trader's dream and a compliance officer's nightmare.
The only thing more predictable than a market cycle is a finance executive hedging their public statements.
VanEck says AI and gold have become more attractive investments
Post the steep late-year pullback and sell-off in 2025, VanEck noted that AI “looks more attractive today.” It added that themes related to AI, including nuclear power, have risen considerably, making the risk-reward landscape that much more compelling to medium-term investors.
It also claimed that markets have been benefiting from the steady progress in U.S. government finances. The New York-based management firm also argued that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s “normal” label for current rates suggests a steady 2026 outlook, with moderate adjustments and fewer shocks improving market clarity.
It also contended that, following a tough 2025, business development companies (BDCs) have benefited from a correction that has created potential. It confirmed yields remain strong, and credit concerns are largely reflected in prices, making them more compelling than last year.
Additionally, it explained that gold continues to strengthen its position as a key global currency, supported by central banks and declining dollar dominance.
There is technical overextension, but dips remain attractive for buyers. India is now a high-conviction, long-term investment opportunity driven by structural reforms and sustained growth, it added.
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel is more optimistic on Bitcoin’s outlook
However, in its post, the firm took a more cautious stance on Bitcoin. The four-year cycle of bitcoin trading was interrupted in 2025, it stated, meaning short-term signals are less reliable.
It further commented, “This divergence supports a more cautious near-term outlook over the next 3–6 months,” though certain executives like Matthew Sigel and David Schassler maintain a more positive view of the immediate cycle.
Typically, risk-on markets tend to favor high-risk assets such as AI, tech stocks, and crypto. Still, Bitcoin has diverged from equities and gold following the significant October deleveraging event, according to the firm.
However, in an earlier report, the company had previously highlighted that Bitcoin has significant long-term upside and that it could reach $2.9 million by 2050 if it captures 5–10% of global trade settlements and 2.5% of central bank reserves.
Speaking on VanEck’s most recent post, Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said, however, that the firm was more focused on medium-term events than on immediate ones.
He argued, “One can’t help but look at price action, which often is its own narrative as confirmation. With BTC rising in a low-leverage environment, it feels like a lot of last year’s fluff was taken out, leaving bulls a tad more realistic, and bears tamed in their apocalyptic prophecies.”
He explained that while conflict with the US administration and the Fed could have weighed on markets, geopolitical uncertainty and an overall bullish mood for risk assets benefited crypto in its catch-up phase.
Meanwhile, HashKey Group senior researcher Tim SUN stated that, following the late-2025 adjustments, the market’s path into early 2026 is now rather well established. He sees Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies profiting in the year. Will Clemente, a crypto investor, also said that such conditions are precisely what Bitcoin was built for.
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