Steven Miran & James Bullard Drop Truth Bomb: Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t Fueling Inflation

Economists call BS on the tariff-inflation narrative—here’s why markets aren’t buying the hype.

### The Tariff Scapegoat Crashes and Burns

Steven Miran and James Bullard just torched the political talking points. Their verdict? Trump’s tariffs didn’t send prices soaring—no matter how badly Wall Street wants a villain.

### Numbers Don’t Lie (But Politicians Do)

While DC spins tales of trade wars causing economic chaos, the data tells a different story. Pro tip: When economists agree, maybe stop blaming tariffs for your failed inflation bets.

### The Cynical Take

Funny how inflation always ‘isn’t transitory’ until bankers need to explain why their models crashed harder than a shitcoin.

Miran rejects tariff-inflation link after latest CPI data

Miran said predictions that tariffs WOULD cause long-lasting price spikes have simply not materialized. He stated there was “no evidence whatsoever of any tariff-induced inflation” and pointed out that the gloomy forecasts made by some experts “just haven’t panned out.”

His comments followed the release of July’s consumer price index, which showed prices rising 2.7% year-over-year. That figure remains above the Fed’s official 2% target but came in slightly lower than Wall Street expected. The report adds to the argument from Trump’s administration that the current inflation numbers do not justify keeping interest rates at their current level.

Trump used the CPI release to renew his criticism of Powell and to push for steep rate cuts. Posting on Truth Social, he said Powell’s slow decision-making had caused “incalculable” damage and repeated his demand for the Fed to lower its benchmark rate by three percentage points. He also claimed the economy’s current strength has been achieved despite the central bank’s actions.

Bullard also dismissed the idea that tariffs are raising inflation. He argued that the past six months of economic data since the latest tariff measures were imposed show “very muted effects” on overall prices. In his view, any increases from tariffs are one-time adjustments to price levels, not ongoing drivers of inflation.

Bullard expects interest rate cuts to start in September

Bullard predicted that the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will begin cutting rates in September. He said the committee is likely to reduce the benchmark rate by a full percentage point over the next 12 months, a MOVE he believes would bring policy “close to” neutral.

He noted that the committee had paused its earlier rate-cut program when the tariff issue flared up six months ago. Now, he said, there is enough evidence to move forward with cuts, since neither tariffs nor taxes, in his view, are responsible for higher inflation.

Both Miran and Bullard addressed the issue of the Fed’s independence, which has been repeatedly tested during Trump’s presidency. TRUMP has openly criticized policymakers for not lowering rates faster, sometimes singling out Powell by name.

While avoiding direct comment on Trump’s tone, Miran stressed that the central bank should operate independently of political pressure.

Bullard said Trump “is entitled to his views,” noting the president’s background in real estate and his focus on securing low borrowing costs. He added, “Good for him. He’s got views, but a lot of people have views, and you know, if you don’t want to hear that, this is probably the wrong job.”

If confirmed, Miran will join the Fed board before year-end, while the decision on Powell’s successor will shape the central bank’s leadership through the middle of the decade. Markets are watching both developments closely, with traders already weighing the chances of aggressive easing in the coming months.

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