Gemini Secures CFTC License to Launch Prediction Markets in the U.S.

Gemini just got the regulatory green light to let you bet on the future.

The Winklevoss-led crypto exchange secured a critical license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), clearing the path to launch regulated prediction markets for U.S. customers. This isn't just another product launch—it's a direct challenge to the traditional, opaque world of financial forecasting.

From Crypto to Crystal Ball

Forget sports betting or political odds. Gemini's new platform aims to create markets on everything from inflation data and corporate earnings to climate metrics. The idea? Harness the 'wisdom of the crowd' to generate more accurate forecasts than any single Wall Street analyst—who, let's be honest, often misses the mark with spectacular consistency.

The Regulatory Tightrope

Scoring a CFTC license is no small feat. It signals that regulators are starting to see a legitimate use case for blockchain beyond pure speculation. Gemini had to prove its systems could prevent manipulation and ensure market integrity, a hurdle that has tripped up many aspiring platforms.

This move effectively creates a new asset class: tradable information. It turns belief about future events into a liquid commodity, all built on transparent, auditable blockchain rails.

A New Arena for Crypto Capital

The license opens a massive funnel for crypto liquidity. Traders can now use their BTC or ETH not just to hodl or swap, but to take a position on real-world outcomes. It's a powerful narrative shift—from crypto as a rebellious alternative to crypto as the infrastructure for a more open financial system.

Prediction markets could become the ultimate stress test for decentralized governance, too. Imagine DAOs using them to guide treasury decisions or protocol upgrades based on crowd-sourced probability.

Gemini's win is a watershed moment. It proves that with enough legal firepower and compliance patience, crypto can build bridges to the old financial world—and maybe, just maybe, build something better on the other side. After all, in a market often driven by hype, there's a certain irony in getting paid to be right.

Market reaction and stock performance

The market responded positively to the news. Gemini’s publicly traded stock (ticker: GEMI) ROSE sharply in after‑hours trading on Wednesday, climbing 13.7% to $12.92 before closing down at $11.36. 

The spike reflects investors’ newfound optimism about new revenue streams and strategic diversification. Despite this uptick, Gemini’s share price remains down 64.5% since its public debut on September 12, amid broader crypto market challenges and subdued rallies.

What prediction markets are and why they matter

Prediction markets let users trade contracts tied to future outcomes, for example, whether Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a certain price by year‑end, or the result of political or economic events. 

“Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance,” said Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s President on receiving the CFTC license.

Traders effectively assign probabilities to outcomes based on market pricing. Supporters believe that such markets are able to capture the collective expectations in a more timely and precise way than the conventional polls or analysts.

Growing competition in prediction markets

Gemini’s MOVE places it alongside major prediction‑market platforms that have gained traction in recent years. Kalshi, a U.S.‑regulated exchange, has been a dominant force in the sector, growing rapidly in trading volume and forging partnerships with media outlets to broadcast real‑time probability data. 

Other firms are also expanding offerings. Robinhood Derivatives earlier this year launched a prediction markets hub inside its trading app, allowing users to trade contracts tied to major world events. 

Polymarket, a formerly U.S.‑restricted platform, has signaled a quiet return to the U.S. with partnerships and a relaunch, underscoring increasing mainstream interest. 

Legal and regulatory headwinds

Despite federal approval for some firms, prediction markets have encountered regulatory pushback at the state level. 

Recently, Connecticut regulators directed a number of platforms, such as Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Kalshi, to cease selling event contracts, claiming that they constitute unlicensed sports wagering under state law.

Massachusetts has also pursued legal action against Kalshi, creating further legal ambiguity on the application of state gambling laws.

Outlook and industry impact

Gemini’s entry into prediction markets highlights growing acceptance of event contracts as a regulated financial product. The approval could broaden the user base for these markets and intensify competition. 

Meanwhile, legal challenges and conflicting regulatory indications indicate that the situation will keep changing in 2026.

Investors and users will be keen to see how states and federal regulators strike a balance between innovation, consumer protection, and the classification of prediction markets compared to the traditional gambling and financial products.

Also Read: Prediction Markets Sparks Debate Over Gambling and Insider Trading