Lighter Insiders Accused of Rigging Airdrop Bets on Polymarket—Here’s How They Did It
Betting markets just got a dose of insider trading drama. The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket is facing allegations that insiders at cross-chain protocol Lighter manipulated bets on its own token airdrop.
The Setup: A Predictable Payday
At the heart of the controversy is a market asking if Lighter would launch its token by a specific date. Insiders, who presumably knew the launch was imminent, allegedly placed heavy 'Yes' bets. When the airdrop was confirmed, they cashed out—profiting from non-public information in a system designed to be trustless.
Why This Stings for DeFi
It's a classic case of the house always winning, except the house is supposed to be code. Prediction markets thrive on the wisdom of the crowd, not the privilege of a few. This incident exposes a raw nerve: how do you prevent front-running when the event being predicted is controlled by the people placing the bets?
The Fallout and the Fine Print
Polymarket has reportedly voided the disputed bets, but the reputational damage is done. It's a stark reminder that 'decentralized' doesn't automatically mean 'fair.' For every revolutionary protocol promising to democratize finance, there's an old-school human looking for an edge—proving some Wall Street habits die hard, even on-chain.
Allegations over market manipulation
On December 28, analyst igorizuchaetcrypty directly accused the Lighter team of manipulating Polymarket through dozens of accounts, calling it “shady practices” for “pathetic $2M.” He criticized the project’s declining monthly revenue ($40M total, only $7M in December), lack of real users beyond farmers, and manual token distribution as signs of unprofessionalism.
Lighter team is manipulating Polymarket.
Stay away from this project, because there’s a team behind it that’s involved in shady practices.
Let’s break it down.
Why does Lighter have no real future?
> Greedy and cunning team that will take all your money. Trust me, I’ve seen… pic.twitter.com/JPnN3yWzYq
“The Lighter team manipulates bets on Polymarket,” the analyst noted, adding, “They literally create dozens of accounts on Polymarket and place bets through them, doing it carefully to avoid suspicion.”
With his accusations, igorizuchaetcrypty advised users to stay away from the project, citing greed and comparisons to underperforming rivals like Hyperliquid. Though all these claims lack any solid source, the concern has raised debate over the team’s alleged role.
Current market sentiment and broader implications
As December 29 unfolds, Polymarket volume exceeds $15 million across Lighter markets while odds around every potential outcome for the project have fluctuated sharply. Recently, bets favoring “no airdrop in 2025” have gained massive volume while facing timing risks.
Earlier this month, Lighter transferred 250 million LIT tokens (25% supply) and enabled airdrop allocation forms, with team hints pointing to a year-end TGE. The pre-market trading for LIT token on platforms like Hyperliquid currently values the project at ~$3.5, implying a FDV potential of $3.5 billion.
These allegations underscore prediction markets’ vulnerability to informed actors where insiders can profit while distorting crowd wisdom. While no official response from Lighter has addressed the claims, the drama highlights the high-stakes speculation around one of 2025’s most farmed airdrops.
Also read: Hyperliquid Labs Unstakes $31.2M Worth of HYPE Tokens for Team
