Winners and Losers of Agribusiness in 2026 — Where to "Tie Your Ox" This Year
- How Did Agribusiness Stocks Perform in 2025?
- Why Was 2025 So Tough for Agribusiness?
- What's the Outlook for 2026?
- Which Agribusiness Stocks Look Promising for 2026?
- Key Factors to Watch in 2026
- Frequently Asked Questions
2025 was a tough year for agribusiness, and the stock market reflected that reality. Only 3 out of 12 major agribusiness stocks tracked by analysts posted gains, while the rest suffered significant losses. As we step into 2026, the sector faces a complex landscape of falling commodity prices, high interest rates, and political uncertainty. But amidst the challenges, there are still opportunities for savvy investors who know where to look. Let’s break down the winners, losers, and key trends shaping agribusiness in 2026.
How Did Agribusiness Stocks Perform in 2025?
The numbers don’t lie—2025 was brutal for most agribusiness stocks. Here’s the full breakdown:
| Company | Ticker | 2025 Performance (Jan 2 - Dec 30) |
|---|---|---|
| Raízen | RAIZ4 | -61.97% |
| Jalles Machado | JALL3 | -39.25% |
| São Martinho | SMTO3 | -61.87% |
| Cosan | CSAN3 | -33.67% |
| Minerva | BEEF3 | +39.47% |
| 3tentos | TTEN3 | +25.93% |
| SLC Agrícola | SLCE3 | +0.49% |
| Boa Safra | SOJA3 | -3.42% |
| BrasilAgro | AGRO3 | -6.91% |
| Suzano | SUZB3 | -15.77% |
| Klabin | KLBN11 | -9.94% |
| Irani | RANI3 | +43.23% |
Source: TradingView
Why Was 2025 So Tough for Agribusiness?
According to Marcos Jank, professor at Insper, the sector is still feeling the aftershocks of the 2021-2023 period. "We've been in this difficult phase since 2024 because commodity prices fell and the dollar hasn't appreciated much," Jank explains. "We're dealing with high costs, tight margins, numerous judicial recoveries, and most importantly, scandalously high interest rates."
The pain hasn't been evenly distributed though. While grain producers (especially soy and corn) have struggled, animal protein producers have benefited from lower feed costs. "Coffee is doing well, sugar faces difficulties, small animal meats are in a better situation," Jank notes. "Soy and corn are having a bad time. There are always winners and losers—you can't generalize."
What's the Outlook for 2026?
Bank of America analysts see potential relief coming from interest rate cuts in both the U.S. and Brazil. "The consumer staples sector typically outperforms during monetary easing cycles," BofA notes. "Additionally, lower rates benefit more Leveraged companies like Cosan (CSAN3), Raízen (RAIZ4) and MBRF (MBRF3)."
However, the 2026 presidential elections in Brazil loom large as a potential source of volatility. Election years historically bring uncertainty that can scare off investors, leading to mixed performance for agribusiness stocks.
Which Agribusiness Stocks Look Promising for 2026?
Here are the top picks from analysts:
- JBS (JBSS32): Viewed as a defensive play within the sector
- 3tentos (TTEN3): Expected to show robust growth with its new corn ethanol plant coming online
- Minerva (BEEF3): One of 2025's few winners, continuing strong export performance
- Irani (RANI3): Topped 2025's performance charts with 43% gains
The BTCC team notes that JBS remains their only Buy recommendation in the protein space, citing record beef and poultry exports in Q4 2025.
Key Factors to Watch in 2026
Several variables will determine whether 2026 brings recovery or more pain:
- Interest rate trajectory: Both in Brazil and globally
- Commodity prices: Particularly soy, corn, and sugar
- Election dynamics: Policy uncertainty could weigh on the sector
- Currency movements: The real's performance against the dollar
- Weather patterns: Always a wildcard for agricultural production
This article does not constitute investment advice. As always, do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which agribusiness stocks performed best in 2025?
The top performers were Irani (RANI3) with +43.23%, Minerva (BEEF3) with +39.47%, and 3tentos (TTEN3) with +25.93% gains.
Why are some analysts optimistic about agribusiness stocks in 2026?
Analysts point to potential interest rate cuts in Brazil and the U.S., which typically benefit consumer staples and leveraged companies. Some stocks like 3tentos also have specific growth catalysts.
What are the main risks for agribusiness in 2026?
The key risks include continued pressure on commodity prices, Brazil's presidential elections creating volatility, and persistently high interest rates.
Is now a good time to invest in agribusiness stocks?
While some stocks appear oversold after 2025's declines, the sector remains volatile. Investors should carefully evaluate each company's fundamentals and consider dollar-cost averaging to mitigate timing risk.
