Myanmar’s Pro-Military Party Claims Victory After First Phase of 2025 Elections: What’s Next?

What Happened in Myanmar’s First-Phase Elections?

On December 29, 2025, the USDP—a party historically aligned with Myanmar’s military junta—claimed victory in the initial phase of parliamentary elections. The polls, held amid tight security in the capital Naypyidaw, saw low voter turnout in urban centers, with reports of intimidation in opposition strongholds. Independent observers, however, have raised concerns about the credibility of the results, citing a lack of transparency.

Why Does This Election Matter?

Myanmar’s political landscape has been fractured since the 2021 military coup, which ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The 2025 elections are the first nationwide polls since the coup, framed by the junta as a step toward “disciplined democracy.” Critics argue the process is a sham designed to legitimize military rule. “The USDP’s victory claim is predictable but hardly reflective of public sentiment,” noted a BTCC analyst, speaking anonymously due to security concerns.

Historical Context: A Cycle of Power Struggles

Myanmar’s history is marred by alternating cycles of military rule and fragile democracy. The USDP, founded in 2010, previously dominated elections criticized for excluding opposition parties. The 2025 polls repeat this pattern, with key parties like the National League for Democracy (NLD) barred from participating. Meanwhile, ethnic minority groups—central to Myanmar’s decades-long civil wars—largely boycotted the vote.

How Are International Actors Reacting?

The international community has responded cautiously. The UN Secretary-General urged “inclusive dialogue,” while regional bloc ASEAN reiterated its stalled five-point peace plan. Western nations, including the U.S., are expected to reject the results outright. China, however, signaled tacit support, with state media highlighting the elections as “internal affairs.”

Economic Implications: Sanctions and Stagnation

Myanmar’s economy, already reeling from post-coup sanctions, faces further isolation. The kyat has plummeted 60% against the dollar since 2021, and foreign investment has dried up. “Pro-military electoral victories typically prolong economic paralysis,” observed a TradingView markets report. cryptocurrency usage, notably USDT, has surged as locals bypass banking restrictions—a trend monitored by platforms like CoinMarketCap.

What’s Next for Myanmar?

With the second election phase slated for January 2026, tensions are likely to escalate. Protests have erupted in Yangon, and armed resistance groups vow to disrupt further voting. The military, meanwhile, appears poised to cement its grip. “This isn’t democracy; it’s theater,” lamented a Yangon-based teacher, reflecting widespread disillusionment.

FAQs: Myanmar’s 2025 Elections Unpacked

Q: Who is leading the USDP?

A: The party is chaired by former general Than Htay, a staunch junta ally. His leadership signals continuity with military policies.

Q: How reliable are the election results?

A: Independent verification is nearly impossible due to media restrictions. Opposition groups allege widespread fraud.

Q: Could sanctions worsen?

A: Likely. The EU has draft measures targeting junta-linked businesses, which may pass if the election is deemed illegitimate.