Tesla Faces Second Consecutive Year of Declining Sales in 2025: Analysts Predict 15% Drop in Q4 Deliveries

• Why Are Tesla’s Deliveries Dropping in 2025?
• Is 2025 Tesla’s Worst Sales Year Yet?
• How Did Tesla Try to Offset the Sales Slump?
• What Crashed Tesla’s $2.67B Battery Deal?
• Why Is Tesla’s Stock Outperforming Its Sales?
• FAQ: Tesla’s 2025 Delivery Crisis

Tesla is bracing for its second straight year of declining vehicle deliveries, with analysts forecasting a 15% drop in Q4 2025 compared to the same period last year. The company’s struggles include production halts, controversial CEO moves, and a collapsed battery supply deal. Despite these challenges, Tesla’s stock remains up 14% YTD—though it’s underperforming the S&P 500. Here’s the full breakdown of what’s weighing on the EV giant.

Why Are Tesla’s Deliveries Dropping in 2025?

Tesla’s delivery estimates for October-December 2025 paint a grim picture. Analysts project around 422,850 vehicles shipped—a 15% year-over-year decline. Bloomberg’s slightly more optimistic forecast (445,061 units) still suggests a 10% dip. This marks the first time Tesla’s investor relations team has publicly shared such bearish numbers on their website. Historically, they’ve tracked these projections internally for years before going public with the data.

Is 2025 Tesla’s Worst Sales Year Yet?

Barring a miraculous December rally, Tesla will close 2025 with approximately 1.6 million deliveries—an 8% decrease from 2024. The slump began early this year when production paused for Model Y line retooling. Coincidentally (or not), CEO Elon Musk’s controversial alignment with the TRUMP administration during this period sparked backlash. The only bright spot? A record Q3 fueled by U.S. buyers rushing to claim expiring EV tax credits.

How Did Tesla Try to Offset the Sales Slump?

When incentives vanished in Q4, Tesla scrambled by releasing stripped-down Model Y and Model 3 variants priced under $40K. While these budget options helped somewhat, they couldn’t fully compensate for the Cybertruck’s delays—which left Tesla reliant on its aging lineup. As one BTCC market analyst noted: “They’re playing defense with 2016’s playbook while rivals debut next-gen EVs.”

What Crashed Tesla’s $2.67B Battery Deal?

South Korea’s L&F Co. slashed its Tesla battery contract by 99%—from 3.83 trillion won ($2.67B) to just 9.73 billion won—citing “shifting supply volumes.” The collapse stems partly from Cybertruck’s nonexistent deliveries and fading inflation-reduction subsidies. Interestingly, L&F assured investors its high-nickel battery shipments to Korean manufacturers (like LG Energy Solutions) remain unaffected. Their stock still tanked 11% on the news.

Why Is Tesla’s Stock Outperforming Its Sales?

Despite operational headaches, Tesla shares are up 14% YTD. That trails the S&P 500’s 17% gain but suggests investors still believe in Musk’s long-term vision. Some speculate AI and robotics ventures are propping up valuations beyond auto sales. As TradingView data shows, Tesla’s P/E ratio remains stratospheric compared to legacy automakers.

FAQ: Tesla’s 2025 Delivery Crisis

How many vehicles will Tesla deliver in Q4 2025?

Analysts estimate 422,850 units (15% YoY drop), while Bloomberg forecasts 445,061 (10% decline).

What caused Tesla’s battery deal with L&F to collapse?

Cybertruck delays and reduced U.S. subsidies led to a 99% contract reduction—now worth just $6.8M.

Is Tesla stock a buy despite declining sales?

This article does not constitute investment advice. While shares are up 14% YTD, they underperform the broader market.