Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Dips Below $91,000 Amid Surging Global Tensions and Macroeconomic Headwinds
Bitcoin's throne wobbles as the king of crypto slips below a key psychological level. Global instability and traditional finance pressures are testing the digital asset's famed resilience.
The Geopolitical Storm Cloud
Markets hate uncertainty, and the world is serving up a heaping plate of it. Rising global tensions create a classic risk-off environment, pushing investors toward perceived safe havens. Yet Bitcoin—often touted as 'digital gold'—is feeling the heat alongside equities. The correlation, or lack of true decoupling during stress, remains a critical debate for every portfolio manager with a crypto allocation.
Macro Pressures Mount
It's not just geopolitics. The old guards of finance—interest rates, inflation data, central bank balance sheets—are exerting their force. Liquidity gets pinched, leverage unwinds, and even the most bullish narratives face a reality check. The market is realizing that crypto doesn't trade in a vacuum; it's plugged directly into the same grid powering Wall Street's anxiety.
The $91,000 Line in the Sand
That specific price point isn't just a number. It's a technical and sentiment level watched by algos and analysts alike. Holding above it suggested strength; breaking below invites a wave of sell orders and fresh scrutiny. The next major support zones are now in focus, with traders watching for either a swift recovery or a deeper correction. Every move is magnified when you're sitting on a trillion-dollar market cap.
Prediction vs. Reality
Price predictions are a dime a dozen in crypto—usually worth less than the processing power used to generate them. The real signal lies in on-chain data, exchange flows, and derivative positioning. Is this a healthy flush of leverage or the start of a sustained downtrend? The network's underlying health metrics will tell that story long before any influencer's chart.
So, is this a buying opportunity or a warning sign? In crypto, it's almost always both. The volatility is a feature, not a bug. One cynic's 'macro pressure' is just another trader's expected dip before the next leg up. After all, in traditional finance, they call a crashing stock a 'correction,' but in crypto, we just call it Tuesday. The long-term thesis for a decentralized, global, sound money asset hasn't changed. Short-term price action is just noise—expensive, heart-pounding noise.
Macro & Geopolitical Risks Weighing on BTC
BTC erased some of last week’s gains amid high uncertainty around key macro policies, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions. Asian markets are also feeling the heat, adding to the pressure on bitcoin price prediction. The major focus will be on the US nonfarm payrolls report and a possible Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
A key economic data point – US nonfarm payrolls data is about to be released on Friday this week, which is widely expected to influence Fed interest rates. Weaker jobs data WOULD signal economic slowing and could increase expectations of a Fed rate cut later this year.
Fed rate cut probability. Source: FedWatchTool
On the geopolitical front, along with the awaited confirmation of the U.S.-Venezuela situation, the long-running diplomatic dispute between China and Japan intensified. Beijing has launched an anti-dumping investigation and export restrictions on Japan. This has weakened the “risk-on” sentiment required for digital assets to rally.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are increasing downside risk for Bitcoin in the short term. Since the beginning of this week, the broader crypto market has tracked lower along with traditional assets. These crucial events are competing for market attention, keeping traders cautious and rangebound.
Institutional & On-Chain Context
Bitcoin institutional products are also experiencing intense pressure amid the current high volatility. After bitcoin posted one of its worst Q4s since 2017, the pressure has shifted to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which could significantly impact Bitcoin price prediction. Bitcoin ETFs are adding short-term selling pressure, as December 2025 saw net outflows of over $1 billion.
This selling has continued into the new year as well. While the first two sessions in Bitcoin ETFs saw strong demand, recording $1.168 billion in inflows, the last three sessions saw an outflow of $1.12, leaving the total net flow slightly positive.
Source: Coinglass
ETF outflows force authorized participants to sell physical Bitcoin, directly increasing short-term downside pressure. This could directly impact downward price movements. However, the movement is not completely bearish, and inflows could stabilize in the coming weeks as the market conditions improve.
Can Bitcoin Price Prediction Hold Above $90,000 Support?
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $90,000 support level after being rejected at the $94,000 swing high last week. The psychological support at $90,000 is being flirted with, but has been successfully reclaimed after a slight dip.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just above the 50 level, signaling that buyers and sellers are fighting to take control. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has sustained bullish sentiments, printing green candles above the zero line.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Image Courtesy: TradingView
On Thursday’s dip, the 50-day moving average served as strong support for the price and will be a crucial level to watch in the coming days. Shorter moving averages of 10 and 20 days will also be crucial for maintaining momentum in Bitcoin’s price.
However, the major technical significance depends upon the $90,000 support level. If the current trend fails to sustain above this level, the next dance floor is down at $86,500, or if bear pressure intensifies, it could drop to $84,500, a major support level. For now, the momentum is neutral, with bulls trying to regain ground, while traders wait on the sidelines for a proper reversal cue.
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