Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle is Dead: Matt Hougan (Bitwise) Predicts New All-Time Highs in 2025
- Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle is Officially Obsolete
- The CLARITY Act: A Game-Changer for ETH and SOL
- From Speculative Asset to Mature Store of Value
- FAQs: Your Bitcoin 2025 Roadmap
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has declared the end of Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle, forecasting a breakout year in 2025 fueled by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. With the CLARITY Act poised to reshape crypto markets, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and solana could see unprecedented growth. Here’s why the old patterns no longer apply—and what it means for your portfolio.
Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle is Officially Obsolete
For years, bitcoin followed a predictable rhythm: three years of accumulation, one year of explosive growth. But according to Bitwise’s 2025 outlook, that model is history. Institutional capital—pouring in via spot ETFs and pro-crypto legislation—has fundamentally altered market dynamics. "The halving and leverage cycles that drove past booms are now secondary forces," notes Hougan. Bitcoin’s volatility may even dip below tech stocks like Nvidia, creating a smoother ascent. Translation? No more waiting until 2026 for the next bull run—it’s happening now.
The CLARITY Act: A Game-Changer for ETH and SOL
Beyond Bitcoin, Bitwise is bullish on ethereum and Solana, but with a caveat: their success hinges on the CLARITY Act. This pending U.S. legislation could legitimize tokenization and stablecoins, acting as rocket fuel for altcoins. "We’re seeing ETH and SOL decouple from BTC’s movements," says the BTCC research team. "Regulatory green lights would cement that trend." Historical data from CoinMarketCap shows both assets outperforming Bitcoin during past regulatory milestones—a pattern likely to repeat.
From Speculative Asset to Mature Store of Value
Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional indices like the S&P 500 is fading fast. Despite a 4.6% U.S. unemployment rate (per TradingView), crypto is carving its own path. "Imagine 2025 delivering the trifecta," muses Hougan: "strong returns, managed volatility, and low correlation with stocks." That’s the holy grail for diversification—and it’s why your grandparents might finally stop calling crypto a "ponzi scheme."
FAQs: Your Bitcoin 2025 Roadmap
What killed Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle?
Institutional ETFs and regulatory progress have diluted the halving’s impact. The market’s now driven by macro adoption, not just scarcity.
Will Ethereum and Solana follow Bitcoin’s lead?
Not exactly—their growth depends more on the CLARITY Act’s passage. ETH could thrive as a regulatory-compliant smart contract platform, while SOL’s speed attracts institutional DeFi projects.
How high can Bitcoin go in 2025?
Bitwise avoids specific price targets but notes BTC’s 2024 ATH of $126,080 could look "conservative" if institutional inflows accelerate.
