Altcoin Season Never Ends: Most Traders Miss the Winners, Says Hayes – Here’s Why (2025 Update)
- Wait… Altcoin Season Is Already Here?
- Why Traders Keep FOMOing at the Top
- The "Altcoin Ladder" Theory vs. Continuous Cycles
- Technical Signs Everyone’s Ignoring
- How to Spot the Next Hyperliquid (Before It Moons)
- FAQ: Your Altcoin Season Questions Answered
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that "altcoin season" isn’t a fleeting event but a continuous cycle most traders fail to capitalize on. While many wait for a mythical "perfect entry," assets like Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Solana have already delivered massive gains. Current market data shows altcoins forming higher lows, with niche tokens like Canton (CC) surging 31% in 24 hours. The real challenge? Recognizing winners.
Wait… Altcoin Season Is Already Here?
You’ve probably seen the tweets – "When altseason?" "Is it too late to buy alts?" Here’s the uncomfortable truth from Arthur Hayes: "There’s always an altcoin season happening. You just weren’t holding the right bags." The BitMEX founder dropped this reality check during a recent chat with crypto influencer Kyle Chassé, pointing to Hyperliquid’s rise from $2 to $60 and Solana’s rebound from $7 to nearly $300 as proof. Right now, HYPE trades at $24.69 and SOL at $126 – not bad for a "missed" season, eh?
Why Traders Keep FOMOing at the Top
Psychology 101: Humans crave confirmation. Hayes notes traders often hesitate during actual opportunities (too risky! might dip further!) then FOMO when prices peak. The 2017, 2020, and recent 2024-2025 cycles followed identical scripts – just with different coin mascots. "People look backward and say ‘there was no altseason’ because they didn’t own the 10x coins," Hayes explains. Meanwhile, Canton (CC) just ripped 31% today while everyone debates whether to APE in.
The "Altcoin Ladder" Theory vs. Continuous Cycles
Old-school traders expect a tidy sequence: Bitcoin pumps → ethereum follows → small alts explode. But 2025’s market laughs at linearity. BTCC analysts observe that established altcoins with ETF potential (ETH, SOL, XRP) now compete with hyper-niche plays. CryptoQuant CEO Maen Ftoui notes, "The institutional doorway via ETFs has changed capital flow patterns." Translation? Money jumps between tiers unpredictably.
Technical Signs Everyone’s Ignoring
While the Altcoin Season Index sits at a "neutral" 35, analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlights critical bullish signals:
- Higher lows forming since March 2025
- Altcoin market cap holding key support at $1.2T
- Small-cap dominance increasing weekly
His take? "This isn’t a dead market – it’s consolidating before the next leg up." XRP (+3.8%), ETH (+1%), and even meme coins are quietly building momentum.
How to Spot the Next Hyperliquid (Before It Moons)
Hayes’ playbook for continuous altseason:
- Track developer activity – Projects like Hyperliquid had 50+ GitHub commits/month pre-pump
- Watch for exchange listings – BTCC and other major platforms often list coins before 2-3x runs
- Ignore "this time is different" narratives – Cycles repeat with new tickers
Pro tip: When your barber starts asking about "that solana phone coin," it’s time to rotate profits.
FAQ: Your Altcoin Season Questions Answered
Is altcoin season over in 2025?
Data suggests we’re mid-cycle. The Altcoin Season Index hasn’t crossed the 75 threshold (indicating full altseason), but assets like Canton (CC) and Chiliz (CHZ) are already making parabolic moves. Historically, the longest gap between altseasons was 486 days – we’re only 85 days out from the last one.
Which altcoins are analysts watching now?
Beyond the usual suspects (ETH, SOL), BTCC’s research team notes unusual options activity in Pendle (PENDLE) and growing institutional interest in Frax Share (FXS). Retail traders are piling into AI-related tokens after the recent OpenAI developments.
How much portfolio allocation to altcoins?
Van de Poppe recommends 20-40% during accumulation phases, scaling to 60% only during confirmed uptrends. "Never go full degen," as they say on Crypto Twitter.
